Yooper's Trails

Welcome to Yooper's Trails

2009-01-26T09:16:00.000-08:00

Hello, and welcome to Yooper's Trails. Most people who come here are interested in my collapse views and the reasoning behind this. May I suggest by starting in the January archive with, "Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan." By reading your way upward, you'll be actually going along the trail with me, getting to know me along the way. I'll guide you through the Detroit neighborhoods and as we make our way along, we'll comtemplate John Michael Greer's, "Catabolic Collapse" and how it might pretain to this great city.

What will be the future of Detroit in 50 years from the present? I don't know. However, perhaps we can find clues in John Michael Greer's, "Adam's Story", where the setting is the rural Pacific Northwest during the second half of this century.

1) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/05/adams-story-twilight-in-learyville.html

2) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/adams-story-nanmin-voyages.html

3) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/07/adams-story-banners-in-wind.html

4) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/08/adams-story-tillicum-river.html

5) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/08/adams-story-uncharted-waters.html

The Spirit of Detroit

2009-01-25T06:55:00.000-08:00

As a very young child, I asked my mother what this statue was? "Well, that's the Spirit of Detroit!" she proudly proclaimed. The 26-foot sculpture was the largest cast bronze statue since the Renaissance when it was first installed. In its left hand, the large seated figure holds a gilt bronze sphere emanating rays to symbolize God. In its right hand, is a family group symbolizing all human relationships.

People who know me well, would describe me as being a "die hard" Detroit Lions football fan. It takes a certain kind of loyalty, to stay with a team that have been thought to be losers for a number of years. I suppose, that my spirit cannot be broken and I'd rather die, than sway my loyalty from the city I've grown to love. It's this very same spirit that I share with many of the almost one million residents who call Detroit, "home". If there is one underlying theme in the detroitblog, I would say it is this, the people "believe" in this city and think it could turn around.

I think it will turn around, even though I'll likely not be around to see it... Detroit is a very old city dating back to 1701. The population of the city was only 1,422 in 1820, one hundred years later in 1920 the population had grown to near a million. Almost 90 years later the population much reflects that at the 1920 level, coming off a peak of almost two million back in 1950.

Detroit grew rapidly when coal was king. It soon became a "steel town" as the source of iron ore could be shipped by large boats and a source of coal was sent mostly by rail. As industry grew so did the population and by 1880 there were over 100,000 residents. By 1890 it near doubled over 200,000, by 1920 it boosted of having almost one million people. That was before the rural electrification of America!

Is it possible that oil as an energy source, depletes, that coal might likely fill the gap, for awhile anyway? I think so. As the world made by hand, becomes ever so nearer, could some cities such as Detroit with much resources readily at hand, become the great cities in the future? I'd dare say, that the Detroit historical record of population would suggest just that. Unless resources such as water, fertile land, coal, iron ore, and a forest nearby to build from, how will some cities survive in a future that is very likely to become more localized?

Could we have just witnessed a great fall of the population in Detroit during the past 50 years and just right around the corner see a partial recovery in population? I don't know, but I'd go so far to suggest that Detroit will see the catabolic process of decline well into future, even if some of us won't be alive to see it....

I'm going to conclude with this thought, living with the catabolic collapse that Detroit has seen over the years, has brought about a very rich experience for me, during my lifetime. I've had some very good times, lived a lot and loved a lot, in this great city of Detroit!... I wouldn't have missed it for the world!

Instead of my presenting a futuristic scenario, I thought it best coming from the master of Catabolic Collapse himself, John Michael Greer. "Adam's Story", will be posted by links in order, in the concluding segment of this series. This is a story of Catabolic Collapse, set 50 years into the future here in North America. One of my favorites... I've provided you a glimpse of 50 years of catabolic collapse in the great city, that I love, Detroit, from more of a historical perspective.

At this time I'd like to thank, John Michael Greer, for his time and patience, introducing me to the theory of Catabolic Collapse. I'd also like to thank greenstatistician, for taking the time, introducing me to the mindset of Oswald Spengler, providing me a better perspective about civilizations past and present. And thanks to FAR and Nudge, for being my constant companions throughout this series.

Thank you all, yooper

http://www.kiddofspeed.com/

Industrail Detroit

2009-01-23T13:39:00.000-08:00

In the industrial areas very near the downtown area, is a vast wasteland and has been so for decades. Huge factories stand abandoned marking what had once been the birth place of the modern industrial complex. It was here that electricity was first coupled to power machines capable of producing interchangeable, uniform parts. This technology, in part, helped win WWII. Throughout the late 1800's and 1900's thousands migrated to work here. Detroit was the leader of innovation in the world, becoming the fourth largest city in the Nation, back in 1950.

As the factories closed within the city, many moving to the nearby suburbs, much of the population followed them. Today, the Metro Detroit (including suburbs) area has a population near 4,500,000, ranking it 11th in the Nation.

Many of these mammoth giants are being torn down today. I was just shocked just how many have been dismantled and hauled away during my last visit there. Notice the construction trailer parked on the lot in the picture above? This abandoned factory will very likely be gone by the time I make the next trip down there. I very much suspect the ground around these complexes are likely to be somewhat contaminated, and there have been times I've had to dress in a class 2 safety suit during removal operations of such material, in the past. However, many of these places will be capped over making them safe once again. Sometimes my work cloths were so dirty, I'd often take them to Laundry Mats like the one pictured below and have them washed there... Daring not, to bringing them home! Sometimes it takes industrial strength detergent to remove industrial dirt...

I can't agree more with JHK's thoughts about industry not coming back to such structures, as they are hulled out, very, very few of the old machines left in them, if any. Besides they would not fit the needs of the newer industrial factory of today. Of course taking down such structures costs money, however more times than not, the steel structure that is salvaged often helps substantially in covering much of the demolition costs. Perhaps in the no so distant future, as the price of steel rises, that will speed up the process of demolition? I hope so, as they are sooo ugly.

Not so long ago, when I was posting on MSN treads, it'd be often that I'd relate that Detroit or Michigan still leads the economy and that places like Los Angeles or California would be next to decline. Most would scoff at such an idea, thinking Michigan only lags behind in the recovery of the early 2000's recession. I suppose now, this idea isn't so farfetched...

Detroit being the birthplace of the modern industrial complex, doesn't it stand to reason that as the jobs it once provided were being shipped overseas, it would be one of the first to decline? I must say, I was very, very disappointed driving around the downtown area, I had thought that more improvements would have been made since the twenty years that I worked there. I had put a lot of heart and soul into it, and a lot of sweat! Can Detroit stage a comeback? I think so, it'll very likely never be what it once was, but then again, if the suburbs are to go next, where are those people to go?

There are those that are suggesting that as this civilization wanes, it'll become more of a world that is made by hand. I can't agree more, as it appears our energy might wane in the process also. If Detroit is to be a viable city in the future, it'll have to have the resources enabling it to be so. I'm going to strongly suggest it has and think that by the will of it's people, this great city could once again marvel to those that come upon it.

50 years of Catabolic Collapse

2009-01-23T05:36:00.000-08:00

50 years of Catabolic Collapse:Detroit, Michigan... There we have it, the historical population on a graph I made, the figures I found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit towards the bottom of the page. Gee, it appears that I was wrong in assuming that Detroit's decline started around the time of the 1967 riots. Actually as the graph suggests this happened around 1950 as this is when the population peaked and started it's decline. Detroit has lost nearly half of it's population within 50 years. A very troubling aspect about this graph is it appears much like Hubbert's oil production curve or another similar graph shown here http://www.dieoff.org/page125.htm . It appears that Detroit has already completed close to 3/4 of these bell shape curves. Now imagine if you will, if we took a magnifying glass and closely inspected the downward part of the line showing 50 years decline, and see the catabolic cycles of descent in it, all over it, from the peak to where we are now. That the line is not straight down but has a series of "bumps" all the way through it.

Now believe me when I tell you this as I was in Detroit often (throughout my near 50 years) and experienced the ups and downs of this process, first hand. I lived through some good times and some bad times , there. As suggested in the graph above, times just didn't get bad, stay at that point for awhile and then get worse (suggesting a staircase effect). No, there were bad times of decline that were followed by the good times of incline that lead to times of even further decline (suggesting somekind of saw tooth or triangular effect), downwards.

Back to the population graph, it's suggesting that the population almost doubled every decade (very roughly) between 1900 (286,000) to 1910 (466,000) to 1920 (994,000) and then again from 1920 to 1950 (1,850,000). That the decline in population (again very roughly) has lost 200,000 per decade from 1950 to 1990, then tapered to be at 917,000 as of 2007, to closely resemble what the population had been back in 1920. At least, the population slowed it's descent by only loosing roughly 50,000 per decade between 1990 and now. Could this slowing down indicate a possible rebound in the near future? I don't know, perhaps, doubtful though as it would be suggesting a break from a 50 year downward trend, that's a lot of time.

Could this graph be seen as some kind of bubble? That the population inflated to 1950 and will deflate to the levels of say, late 1800's or early 1900's? My friend Nudge, suggests this is a lot like taking a breath and then exhaling it... Could this likely happen in the next 50 years?

At this point, I can't think of a better example than Detroit, of what decline might look like for those suggesting that we'll likely loose 50% of our population in this country, 50 years from now... Can you?

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html

Future apartments?

2009-01-22T07:57:00.000-08:00

When I worked in the Detroit area, it was often, that I'd find myself living in an apartment, rather than a single family house. I thought at the time, gee, this is easy living! I didn't have to cut the grass, maintain the building and if something happened to the toilet, I just called! Of course, this was very convenient as I was working for the most part 60+ hours a week, if not more. For me, there just wasn't the time to own a home, have a garden, and the like, I was working that much. Adding in the time it took me to commute back and forth, well...

The history of tenements or apartment buildings in this country date back to 1839 in New York City and by the 1860's tenement squares were popping up all over the place. In more urban areas, apartments close to the downtown area have the benefits of proximity to jobs and/or public transportation. Also, in areas that are limited in space, they can house more people on a plot of land as many are multi leveled. I suppose, Detroit is no New York City, in that respect as there are very few high rise apartment buildings in the neighborhoods, the vast majority being two or three leveled...

In my travels around the inner city neighborhoods, I didn't see any new construction of apartment complexes being built. Again, I'm not saying there were none, just that I didn't come by any... In fact, there was very little new residential construction period of any kind or new commercial or industrial construction, for that matter. That really shouldn't surprise anyone because the city is declining in production/population. Very near the inner downtown area there is a very small area where apartment complexes sprung up over twenty years ago, but besides that, I know of not any... These apartments are nice but not exceeding so and were very expensive when I worked the downtown area, then.

(gee, wish I had recognized that car in the parking lot before my nephew took the picture!!! I very much suspect that this could be drug related, either waiting for a pick-up or drop-off. It's a damn good thing these people didn't likely notice the picture being taken, as if they did, well.... that is how careful one must be in these neighborhoods!)

The population in Detroit has almost halved since 1950. Perhaps, it's not done deflating? Will it likely half again in the next 50 years? I don't know, but we'll take a look at the history of Detroit's demographics to see if there are any clues, as to what may happen. No one knows what tomorrow will bring, however trends do exist and unless something changes are very likely to continue. One thing is certain, these apartment buildings were built during the build up or production years of incline. They were heated with cheap fossil fuels and I'm going to strongly suggest most were not heated with coal, as they are not that old. They were heated with oil.

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=282

Duplexes on the FARside

2009-01-21T14:41:00.000-08:00

I must say, throughout my tour of the inner city neighborhoods, this was an uncommon site.

Not all the homes appeared in disrepair, some had been maintained, some like the one on the corner sure could use a new roof and some fresh paint. No where in my travels, did I see the evidence of new city water or sewer, which would be marked by new sidewalk, curb and gutter, and roadway...

This was a very common site. There were literally, junk cars everywhere. "Lawn ornaments" abound, some even on the roadways. Tomorrow, we'll look into apartments...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=408

Industrial sized homes

2009-01-20T10:15:00.000-08:00

Industrial sized homes in industrial sized neighborhoods. Just how many city neighborhoods throughout the country look very much the same as the picture above, but without the decay? What grew these enormous homes? Perhaps resources and PRODUCTION. It wasn't all that long ago when many people thought of Detroit as being synonymous with production. It was through the use of cheap fossil fuels, and the production of products that enabled a workforce to live in such homes.

Without question, if we replace the word "progress" with the word "production" in our inclining arc to the left or front side of Hubbert's curve, there might be very few who would disagree with that notion? So, instead of "arc of progress" we'll try on "arc of production" for size, just now? So we have an inclining "arc of production", that comes to a peak and then after, a declining arc of production, when the resource base cannot support it. As Detroit's industrial production grew, so did the population. When much of the resource base left the city, causing it to decline in production and was used at near by suburban areas, much of the population followed it. This process can be seen in many of our Nation's cities and towns, today. This process lead to what many call the "doughnut hole" effect, causing the the inner city to lose population while surrounding areas or suburbs, gained it.

If the resource base is declining, making further gains in production impossible, then perhaps making things such as houses smaller and more efficient, using less resource, only makes sense in the future? Is it possible that Detroit could return to it's former glory of being the center of industrial activity in this country again? I don't know but think, if it does it'll likely be much smaller in size comparable to the the home at the bottom than the one at the top. It would take considerably less resource to maintain the smaller house. One thing is certain, if Detroit is going to have any substantial recovery at all, much of the resource base must return to it, causing production to rise, so the people can return to it.

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=413

"Arc of Progress" Part III

2009-01-18T10:04:00.000-08:00

Back to the "hood". Do you think that this library once held, the two volumes of "Decline of the West"? I'll bet it did....

I'm going to borrow the phase, "Arc of Progress" from my pal Nudge, and run off with it! I've been thinking about what I'm about to describe for about a year now. While I was on the search looking for examples of catabolic collapse (and there were many) on graphics, a strange thought occurred to me. Could the dynamics of decline that catabolic collapse is suggesting on the backside (right side) of say, Hubbert's curve, be somewhat of a reversal (or the opposite of) of the dynamics of the incline on the front side or left side of the curve? If we can describe the catabolic collapse process as decline, then partial recovery to be followed by even deeper decline, followed by yet another partial recovery not as great as the one preceding it to be followed by even deeper decline yet, etc., suggesting a downward arc.

Then can we describe the "Arc of Progress" as being, incline to be followed by partial decline to be followed by even greater incline, followed by yet another partial decline but not as deep as the one preceding it to be followed by even greater incline yet, etc., suggesting an arc of incline? Hope that's not too confusing! But, I think so.... That is, I believe there is a cycling process of progression that dominates the cycling process of partial decline forming an upward arc. Just as the catabolic process of the declining, dominates those cycles of progression forming the partial recovery, projecting the downward "Arc of Decline".

Oooh! That hurts, just thinking about it! However, I do believe this forward process was quite likely (but unimportant), as most of us are very likely thinking we'll be starting our slides down the backside of Hubbert's hill, if not now, soon, or so it seems, (once again for me)...

So at the conclusion of this "progress" segment of the series, I think it might be reasonable to conclude that it takes a very long time for civilizations to fall and ours is no different from the those in past history, as they had their own predicaments, as do we. That this process of decline (catabolic) does have a certain "order" or rhythm to it, was found in civilizations past, has already been detected in parts (if not the whole) of this civilization (perhaps Detroit, as a leading example in North America?) and will very likely continue as this Western Civilization wanes...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=561

Ever Progressing? part II

2009-01-17T12:38:00.000-08:00

These are pictures of Lake Superior's ice taken at spring break up. Ever since I was a young boy this ice just amazed me. It would build and build, form huge "ridges" pushed up by pressure, some as 60 feet high. Then slowly but surely the lake would ice over and become a flat sheet of white, as far as the eye could see. To view something so large and vast is truly something to behold. When spring finally does arrive, the ice slowly melts away, the ice ridge breaks up forming icebergs that drift out into the lake and disappear. By summertime, there is little sign that the ice was even there, as the ice itself is completely gone.

Do you think that the great civilizations past, that walked the face of this earth, experienced much the same thing? I'm going to strongly suggest that they have, they slowly build up and form a great culture that evolves into a civilization and slowly declines, to disappear altogether. All of them were very distinct in their own ways, however they all experienced much the same dynamics of the build up and decline. None of them ended abruptly, all experienced at least 100 years of decline, some 100's of years. What makes us think that this present civilization would be any different? Because of peak oil, financial collapse, climate change? Sure, those will very likely play a role in this civilization's decline but it will not end abruptly, not in two years, not in ten, and very likely not even in a hundred. This would be like the great ice of Lake Superior disappearing over night! Not very likely... I can assure everyone, that the annual dynamics of the build and decline of this very large body of ice has not changed in hundreds of years, likely thousands...

Just the thought of the great civilizations or cultures past, would strongly suggest that there is no "ever progressing", correct? They didn't just build and build, continue to exist today, and if they did, where are they? They declined to the point of extinction, as they do not exist today. Sure, as they declined, people from one culture crossing over time, again hundreds of years, came to form yet another culture. But the people of one culture are very different than those of the other, as the culture defines "who and what" they are.

Oswald Spengler devoted much of his life in the study of human history and compiled a great work called, "Decline of the West." This book includes the idea of Muslims, Jews and Christians, as well as their Persian and Semitic forebears, being Magian, Mediterranean civilizations of the antiquity such as Ancient Greece and Rome being Apollonian, and the modern Westerners being Faustian. Each culture was unique in it's own way, though people's behavior and thought. Once a culture had achieved it's height, everything that can be done from within the worldview of the culture – everything religious, philosophical, intellectual, artistic, social, political, etc., has basically been done, the culture fossilizes into a civilization. That is, when works stop being creative and become just rehashes of the orginal art forms, it soon looses it luster and creates voids. Once the civilization begins to fall apart, it's basically, because nobody actually believes in it any more.

There we have it, civilization falls because nobody actually believes in it anymore. Do you suppose this Faustian civilization of to-day, is just about there? I think so. Cultures rise and fall slowly taking 100's of years in the process. Do you suppose that we (Faustian) who think we're striving for the unattainable (ever-progressing), just don't believe in it anymore? If this is the case and I highly suspect it is, then we can assume that this civilization will very likely fall much like the others before it and with very little intact. By that I mean, what we value today, everything religious, philosophical, intellectual, artistic, etc., much will likely be lost as we proceed to yet another culture, (IF there is to be one). As those who do carry on, will likely develop a whole new set of values, as we did from the previous culture.

So, I suppose, I'm suggesting we can all unpack our bags (as if we're going somewhere), because even if we reach to where ever we think we're going, we'll very likely not need what we've packed, when we get there.....

I just keep thinking whatever happened to that "Motown Music" that so dominated the city in the 1960's? I think Spengler, has answered that question for me... There is no doubt in my mind anyway, that what we're seeing now are just rehashes of the rich culture that Detroit once enjoyed at the peak of it's creativity....

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=414

Progress, part I

2009-01-16T07:33:00.000-08:00

Progress: a proceeding forward; advancement or improvement in mental, moral, or physical condition. growth or development. source The Winston Dictionary, Advanced Edition, 1946

There has been quite some talk about the idea of "progress". Do you think the above photograph would in any way shape or form, imply "progress"? It's one of my primitive camps of 20 years ago. I'd dare say, that for me, it was a proceeding forward, was an advancement or improvement in my mental, moral, and physical condition, at the time anyway. That lead to my personal growth or development...

Even though, I believe we have declined here in North America for the past thirty years, we are becoming more and more a part of a global economy that hasn't. Hasn't this actually "masked" our true situation in this country? Thinking of Russia, without a doubt, they have come back and their standard of living continues to grow from the early 1990's when the former Soviet Union collapsed. Look at the growth of the economies of India and China!

Another notion my instructors had, is that there would very likely be a explosion of resources extracted and consumed toward the end of the "age of progress". I am certain, they were thinking in terms of 1930- 1970, however they could be still correct in that respect, only that there's a lot more resource than they dare imagined. Of course, this only makes sense as it would require more resource to maintain the population.

The instructors all believed that once the world ceased to progress, there would be a short pause and then we would start our descent. That this era will be short lived and marked by power outages, finally bringing down entire electrical grids around the world. That is, once electrical generation was decoupled with mass production of uniform, interchangable parts (one cannot happen without the other and this actually defines the modern industrial society), this present environment (age of progress) would end abruptly. At that point, the industrial society (age of progress) could not support the population it created. Once that happened, the die-off would begin in earnest, end of story (the instructors would not speculate what might happen after that).

There's just one insy tinsy problem that I have with the instructors about this notion as of to-day, they all believed it was going to happen soon (late 70's - early 80's). That I would not likely live the high standard of living they enjoyed, would very likely see a world of unimaginable collapse and so-on. Hmmm, kind of like what many of us believe will happen to the younger generation of today, correct? Well, I've learned a very good lesson over this, along the way, that much I'm certain of...

There's a concept that I'll borrow from Jay Hanson and share with you. Hanson's thoughts about why most people cannot come to terms with peak oil is that through out thousands of years of progressing forward, people can only think in those terms. That is, most people can only think "progressively" forward, they are incapable of imagining a tomorrow of decline, not there. They simply cannot "see" it. This isn't their fault, after thousands of years of conditioning, it's in the genetic make-up. Perhaps, an example of this might be, sheep following one another over a cliff.

This thought of "ever progressing" is not only limited to some people. Continuous growth is the basic assumption, driving our economy. Investment is made in hopes of future growth. Loans are made in hope of growth. Interest is only realized after growth. Without real growth, how can our financial system survive? Suppose, we're almost there? Could it be, that after this last expansion of growth this country has experienced from the housing market, employing perhaps a quarter of Americans, there's nothing more to grow?

When the resources that products are made from become to scarce or too expensive to profit from we can expect those products will no longer be made. No company is going to make them for nothing, not for long. Perhaps, this has been happening already? When a product costs more to make and transport, than what the market will bear, that product becomes "worthless". Could we be seeing this now with the McMansions that are in the out-laying communities far from employment centers?

I suppose, this might be enough for today. Later, I will discuss "progress" again and what this might mean in this civilization and compare it to civilizations past. I'll attempt to discuss what role catabolic collapse might have had concerning matter.

http://www.downtowndetroit.org/ddp/photos.htm

Where in Catabolic Collapse?

2009-01-15T13:45:00.000-08:00

Ok, we're back in the same neighborhood that we started in, exactly where all those abandoned, burnt buildings and other pictures of decay that I was focusing on earlier. On the last post, Far questioned, if we're only seeing the start of the catabolic process? I thought, by showing the rather large fields and meadows that replaced where old busy neighborhoods once stood, was portraying perhaps a view of an end to the catabolic process. Now, I'm not so sure, especially in areas such as this one. One thing I did not see in my travels near that part of town along Chene Street, was the new little sections of homes like the one pictured above. I'm not saying there were none there, but that I did not see them...

As I've suggested before, perhaps we'll learn together what might be actually happening here, by viewing these pictures. Is there some kind of plan or intent, being followed? I'm going to strongly suggest there is and once again what resource is left, is being concentrated in areas deemed more viable in the future. I'm seeing little clusters of new homes (so people can keep an eye on the neighbors property?) Certainly, or well lets hope these new homes won't be capped over in another thirty years! Perhaps, the capped over areas are designed to be the garden plots of the future? If this is the case, and the infrastructure (mainly water) can still support these newer homes, might this become a more attractive area in the future?

I thought at first, what a waste of resource! To build something new among ruins!! However, isn't this the same kind of thinking that would "let go" whole neighborhoods (like the one next to Chene Street), to concentrate more effort and resource to the inner city of Detroit? Will these larger areas that are meadows now, better serve the city in the future, by not being occupied with new homes? See the connection here, only on a smaller scale? Perhaps, these ruins that surround the new cluster of homes will be "permitted" to fall and be capped over to better serve them in the future?

If this is the case, perhaps, in the not so distant future there will be little clusters of homes, surrounded by much more land of gardens and woods? That is, there will likely be no need to have rows of houses, block after block, if there isn't the population there to demand it. Perhaps, in this new arrangement these new homes will become more self sufficient? I would tend to think so, it's a lot easier supporting a family on a large plot of land than from a yard that was the size of a postage stamp, as was in the past...

So in view of this, I think, that catabolic collapse is an on going process, that certain neighborhoods are in different stages. Some in serious decline, some on the up bound partial recovery, and in the whole reflecting an "overlapping". A city that will see partial recovery, more deeper decline, on and on, in our foreseeable future.

http://www.depression2.tv/d2/node/118

The Magic Bus

2009-01-14T08:23:00.000-08:00

This bus caught my eye and was pictured in the far background on one of the photographs on the last post. Lets go for a ride! I just had to loop around driving through the next block to get a closer look. On the trip around, we came by what looked like the ruins of an old apartment building. The catabolic process suggests, if resource depletion continues, all capitol (such as this building) will become waste.

On another tread, entropy was being discussed. http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/therm/entrop.html Notice how the bricks are strewed across the lot? This would suggest that this is a very different time as when those bricks were neatly stacked making what was perhaps a beautiful building in it's day. Those bricks just didn't fall in the reverse order that they were laid, but "unraveled" (thanks Mrs. M!) in such a way, that perhaps years from now, may become indistinguishable to what their former use might have been. Do you think, that many of the building blocks that form our society today, may see the same kind of fate?

Back to the magic bus, what about the values we have today? Do you think that many of the same values that we regard as "wealth" today, will mean anything at all, on the other side, if there is to be one? I certainly have my doubts...

What do you think the artist had in mind, painting the bus in such a way? It appears to me, that all those poka dots are arranged in order to form the background of the message GOD+WAR. Do you think that through entropy, when all those dots that form our society today will be scattered about to form the society of tomorrow, could still support the value that might be, suggested here?

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=542

Across town, twenty years later

2009-01-12T12:06:00.000-08:00

Ok, lets leave the neighborhood that we've been focusing on and go across town to Chene St., just down the road from where the gun shop is located that was featured on the last post from detroitblog (I'll list it again). The above picture shows this "overlapping" that Far was talking about. Twenty years ago, this neighborhood did not look all that different than the neighborhood we've been focusing on. Back then, there were many more businesses and homes in this area some abandoned, some not. This area was "permitted" to fall, it fell so far into decay there were few attempts being made to try to restore it, in a way...

Lets really take a close look at the picture above, notice the "openness"? This is where businesses lined the edge of the street and behind them, homes. Notice the piles of "fill" or earth that have been dumped there? This was a very common practice back then as it appears is today. When buildings fall much of it goes into the basement (if there was one) and with this "fill" would be "capped over" making the appearance of the lot never lived on...

I was just shocked to see how much this part of town had changed! It was the first time that I've visited the area, since my leaving Detroit over twenty years ago. I had the feeling that this part had gotten much more "tamer" than what it was back then. Maybe that was because, there were a lot fewer people that could be seen in the area now, than before.

(click to get a larger image)

Even along the "business strip" almost nobody. There were very, very few businesses that appeared open, most either boarded up or gates and bars drawn for good. Oh, I remember the gates and bars, twenty years ago, but many of the businesses were open and the sidewalks had people on them. Truly, a modern day ghost town.

I can very well remember driving through this part of town with the owner/contractor that I worked for, "looking for a hole" or a place to unload the dump trucks that would be coming loaded with fill. I can remember almost pleading to this man, can't anything be done to stop the decay? The owner replied, "We're doing it, we're gonna bury it."

Never did I imagine at the time that capping over one or two lots between homes would become vast areas of fields and meadows, as those homes fell over the years. I suppose I should have, as sometimes burying the past can provide a new opportunity in the future, at least that was the intent...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=558

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=405

A higher education? "Street Wise, 101"

2009-01-10T11:06:00.000-08:00

The building above, is directly across the road from the high school pictured below, one can see part of the metal post on the far bottom right to confirm this. Can anyone imagine this? What happened to the culture here? I suppose, if one were to ask 100 people, that you'd likely get 100 different responses. There were two men that were approaching me while I was photographing the school and this building outside the vehicle. "Hey! What are you doing there?!" one man screamed about 50 yards away. I turned to quickly bolt for the vehicle, as these men were now approaching towards me very quickly and again I heard, "What are you doing?!!"

I got into the vehicle and speed away, the rest of the entire photo shoot was conducted inside the vehicle and for good reason. I want to make it very clear, that this neighborhood and all others that I'm about to show, are very dangerous and filled with dangerous people. Some of these people have nothing to loose and perhaps a trip to jail, is better than the life they have now? I suspect, that many of the homeless people that are roaming the streets of Detroit today, would rather not risk confrontations such as the one I experienced, looking for a place to squat. Not twenty years ago, not today and likely not tomorrow, either. As for those that have lost their homes recently, perhaps the water, gas, and electric had been shut off? Perhaps, even before they actually left the home, the utilities have been shut off (could not be maintained) and they were then forced to leave the premises? If people are expected to stay in their homes, isn't it reasonable that the utilities not be shut off and other "maintenance" be made, in making the home livable? What about the maintenance of the people, themselves? Where would the money be generated to make such a notion possible? Catabolic collapse, is not a pleasant concept to contemplate... Isn't this what catabolic collapse is all about, the attempt to maintain the unmaintainable, until all resource is gone?

"greenstatistician" asked a question that I've asked at least 100 people that have lived in Detroit their entire lives, "When did Detroit start to fall?" That is assuming that, indeed there was a time when the society stopped "progressing" upwards and started proceeding downwards or declining... I think that perhaps shortly after my visit to see Santa at Sears, this may have come about. Most people, that I've talked to, think the riots that Detroit experienced during 1967, was the turning point. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_Street_Riot So might have Detroit experienced 40 years worth of Catabolic Collapse, already? I'm going to strongly suggest, it has.

It seems to me, that every time that I visit Detroit, it seems to have slipped further and further into decay... Sure there have been periods of recovery and I've witnessed this too, but these were only partial and could never again reach the heights experienced perhaps a decade before it. The pattern of decline is also the same, always reaching new lows. The neighborhood that I've been focusing on wasn't this bad 20 years ago! Furthermore, I'll be so bold to suggest it wasn't a "bad neighborhood" to live in 30 years ago. No, sir! I would not have thought twice about driving the main streets here 30 years ago. Now, here I was catching myself not spending "too much time" in one particular area in the neighborhood and moving on to another, was perhaps the way to go. There were very few vehicles on the streets and some of those vehicles looked like they came out of a "Mad Max" movie. One that passed by didn't even have a windshield in it! "Back then" the houses and yards were neat, orderly, and many of the driveways had Cadillacs on them............. I cannot tell you, how jolted and sad it was coming away from this experience...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=558

What the Hell is going on here?

2009-01-09T06:29:00.000-08:00

This photo was taken just down the street from the where the yellow van sat. It's a damn good thing that Mayor Young is not around today to see this site! This would have been enough to make his blood boil, as he despised using resources in such a wasteful matter... "What the @#%*&#$!!! hell, is going on here? %#&^%#$@!!! One was very wise not to shy or sleek away from such a rant, as this infuriated the man even more...

Let's really look at this picture, as this describes a society deep into catabolic collapse. Surely, the new pavement of the approach to the nonexistent driveway, that would lead to the nonexistent house, is a waste. That nonexistent house today, probably looked like the two at the other end of the block, not all that long ago? I wonder how long it will take when it is very likely that those two abandoned house's lots will look like the lot were viewing in this picture?

When resources become so depleted, that production falls short of the level needed to maintain the capitol stocks or homes/driveways, those homes/driveways eventually become waste. Not only is this very evident in the picture, but if that new blacktop was made from old existing blacktop that was salvaged, that too became a waste in an effort to try to maintain the unmaintainable.

During the photo shoot, I was just appalled at how much resource went into a feeble effort in making the "face lift", in areas so far into decay. That this would soon become not only a waste of time and resource, but could impede an effort on a project that would be more sustainable? Some project, that could be maintained in the foreseeable future?

I'm going to strongly suggest that Mayor Young, knew the catabolic process only too well. Certain neighborhoods were "permitted" to fall under his watch and that the dwindling resource base, was put forth on efforts to projects that could be maintained in the longer run. This is the "vision" that he had, that I was referring to earlier, that is so obviously lacking today in Detroit....

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=519

Detroit, A World Class City

2009-01-07T09:38:00.000-08:00

Detroit's crown jewel, the Renaissance Center, or "RenCen", I spent my wedding night there in the wedding suite, back in 1980. I've had many of fine meals at "Coach Insignia" the rooftop restaurant, while gazing down upon the city. That seems almost like a lifetime ago....

Hmmm, where to start? I want to make this as personal as I can, my relationship to this once great city. I suppose, I'll start with some very fond memories and experiences that I had as a child. On a couple of occasions my mother and the next door neighbor took their broods to see Santa Claus, at the Hudson Building, "downtown" on the bus. This was no ordinary experience that you'd see at the local mall, no it was much more than that, it was "Santa Land". I can remember passing through three full floors, the lighting was rather dim but not quite dark, of snowy cotton spread out on the floor and with sparkles that would shine of every color that laid softly upon the snow. Life like wildlife figurines were scattered about amongst a pond with skaters, hills with sledders and scenes of Christmas at the farm. It was almost like following the yellow brick road of "The wizard of Oz" and at the end was a jolly old Santa, where a boy of five could whisper the dream of having a horse in the old man's ear.... Never again, would I see such "splendor" as it was long ago that the store had closed.

Other former popular attractions of downtown, was the ferry ride over to Bob-Lo Island where there was an amusement park and small zoo that featured seals, penguins and walruses in a water park equipped with slides and pools... Trips down to Michigan and Trumbull, brought the excitement of Tiger baseball.

The Detroit Zoo is still a popular destination but now is threatened of being closed, features 125 acres of naturalistic habitat in near by Royal Oak. Even the Henry Ford Museum, at nearby Dearborn, has lost a lot of it's luster of the "hay days" before the city lost half of its population......

My family moved, "Up North" back to the "family farm" just before the riots of 1967. I can well remember my father stating, "Glad, we got the hell out of there, just in a nick of time!" I did get my wish of getting that horse, guess that Santa Claus guy, was able to drop off one further up north, before he ran out...while coming to the city.

In, the late seventies, I moved back to the Detroit area to work construction, as an heavy equipment operator. There were times when the asphalt paving company who I was working for, had jobs in the inner city constructing fast food restaurants, loading docks, factory roadways and such. It was ALWAYS the practice to haul the machinery back to the yard everyday while completing projects within the Detroit city limits... As theft and destruction of equipment was common... It wasn't long, before the economy tanked and I found myself working elsewhere, along with thousands of others.

It wasn't until 1984 when I found myself back again in Detroit. The city was just beginning to pull out of the recession of the time and the Detroit Tigers baseball team was on the way to the World Series. It was almost as if the city became alive once again! Very upbeat and the construction "boom" was on. I cannot understate the pride and enthusiasm found in making this city "great" again... The Detroit Grand Prix and the Detroit River boat races, were also considered, "World Class" entertainment.

I found employment as a foreman/operator for one of the largest minority contractors in the city. Here, I started work at Chene Park, the pride and joy of the city at the time and also doing work within the low income projects around the inner city. Working at the park was almost a reward for under taking the jobs at "the projects". However, there was an "overseer" at the park that demanded attention, that could have been another reason...

It was at the park that I came to meet Mayor Coleman Young. While being prepped for this event, I was told to never cross this man and to do EXACTLY what he told me to do, to the letter, whether it was "our" job or not... One should not speak of Detroit without mentioning this great man's name. He was the mayor of Detroit spanning from 1974 to 1993, 5 consecutive terms for a total of 20 years. He ruled Detroit with an "iron fist" and it was his vision of the city, that carried it through the rebounds or "partial recoveries" of the era. It was his character and charisma, that made it so! He "willed" it, anyone who disputes this, didn't know the man... Mayor Young, was not an easy man to please, there would be many, many times I would do a job over and over again, until it met his satisfaction. Not only at the park, but Cadillac Square and "the projects", he was personally involved in them all (and didn't seem to mind if he got his feet dirty doing it). He did get to know me on the first name basis, for me addressing him it was always Sir, or Mayor Young... I can't say, that I knew this man well, because I didn't. However, I learned a lot from him just by the way he walked around. This man walked, like he had an invisible shield around him and that nothing could touch him. I cannot say if I've ever met a man more admirable, maybe not respectful. He had his worries, and it was on more than one occasion, I'd seen him, lash out.

I think, in retrospect his vulgarness, stemmed from his vision of the future for the city, once he left, that it'd "fall apart". I even went to the extent to switch jobs, so I could help complete the work at the park as well at the projects. Detroit, is a "hard" city, and what is so apparent to me anyway, it lacks this kind of "hard" man to manage over it today... Mayor Coleman Young was a "World Class" man.

Anybody home?

2009-01-06T08:08:00.000-08:00

Do you think that this home fell victim to foreclosure? I wonder what has become of the people who once lived there? I'll just bet, that this home could be a case in study of catabolic collapse, just as the neighborhood it is in, just as the city and state, all represent stages of this process.

I'd like to suggest, that such homes as the one shown above (click to make larger), as being not common, in the Detroit inner city neighborhoods. Certainly, this house has seen some upkeep throughout the years, however, what are the chances of it being sold (no for sale signs could be found), before it takes on stages of the ones pictured down below? I would suspect, not long... My friend Nudge, is looking for a new home, what would be her first, do you suppose that someone like her would be interested in this property, if it were selling for less than $10,000? $5,000? Many of them are...

What about the home that is pictured at the bottom? This does have a "for sale" sign in the yard and is only blocks away from the houses pictured above. Again, there are more structures like those than the ones actually being lived in and the very few of the ones like the one pictured atop. I would estimate that almost half of the abandoned homes viewed during the picture shoot, showed signs

of fire. I can't image, how busy the fire department around there must be these days... What happens when the resources that make that service available become so depleted, that it must cut back, or be eliminated altogether? Just as it was very likely, the resources of the homeowner of the above home became so depleted, they could no longer afford the upkeep and were likely foreclosed upon? This is the idea of "catabolic collapse". This is a vicious cycle we're talking about here and unless resource depletion (jobs lost) can be stopped, driving down the maintenance costs below that what production (jobs created) can meet, then this catabolic process will end. I just cannot see this as a possibility at this time, here. However, there will very likely be periods of partial recovery, (maybe the next four years?), the house at the very top, may be bought, the maintenance covered for awhile until the next "slide" is encountered...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=557

Part II Catabolic Collapse

2009-01-04T13:11:00.000-08:00

When I was going through the photos, I wanted one that presented the best example of catabolic collapse. This is it, it shows new homes that are nestled among the ruins. These little pockets represent the "partial recovery" that makes this theory so unique. Such new housing (however far and few between) are scattered throughout most of the inner city neighborhoods. Like this one, new homes are built right next door to abandoned houses, this was very common. Not only that, but fresh blacktop was recently laid on many of the streets around such projects.

Perhaps a better way to illustrate the catabolic collapse cycles of descent is shown in the graph that I've drawn on the left. This again, is very much like the one that is depicted in John Michael Greer's, "The Long Descent", however, I've added a thinner line that might suggest other scenarios projecting "Long Emergencies" that have no periods of partial recovery, just maybe periods of staying the same or ever so slightly declining. Both lines drawn show a staircase effect, however, the catabolic line (the thicker line) captures the eye showing this staircase effect better, when viewed diagonally. When viewed diagonally, the thinner line more represents some kind of saw tooth effect. This is very important, as I've heard both kinds of scenarios described as having the staircase effect, however the dynamics are not the same. Also, by viewing graphics or abstract models at different angles and by inverted them, can express ideas better or perhaps in a whole new light. More about this later...

Back to the graph and a society in catabolic collapse, each period of crisis (shown by the fall in the thicker line and the period in time is shaded) causes losses in infrastructure, social organization, information resources and population. This period can be described as a "bust". What follows is a period of stability and recovery or "boom" , but only PARTLY (the recovery cannot reach the level as obtained before it). This period will be followed by another period of instability and decline and so on. This trajectory suggests a downward arc. As John suggests in "The Long Decline" and elsewhere, the industrial world has already experienced a mild crisis during the 1970's and also a period of recovery in the following decades. The same process is likely to have more severe crises and briefer pauses, to shape history in the next 200 years..

What I really want to get across to readers, is this pattern or rhythm that John is suggesting in catabolic collapse. It's a period of decline to be followed by a period of partial recovery to be followed by even deeper decline, etc..

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=539

Part I, Catabolic Collapse

2009-01-03T13:46:00.000-08:00

This photo was taken very near the 94/Livernois location, this house is
typical of those in the area. Almost entire blocks are dominated by structures
such as this one. Once a placed called, "home"....................
(Just think of the stories, that the tree from behind the house could reveal...)

What is Catabolic Collapse? It is a theory describing the dynamics of how civilizations decline devised by John Michael Greer, in 2005. Since that time, this theory has captured the imagination of thousands throughout the intellectual world. It certainly has mine. It can be found on the side bar from his site http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ .

Perhaps the best way to describe catabolic collapse, comes from John himself in his book entitled, "The Long Descent" A users guide to the end of the industrial age. I strongly recommend this book, as in my opinion, best describes the predicament that this civilization now faces. More about this later... In it John uses a metaphor in describing catabolic collapse. It goes something like this: Using home ownership instead of the fate of civilizations, this concept may come to light. Until recently when most people bought homes, they did so within they're means. During the housing bubble of the last few years, many people bought much more of a house than they could actually afford, on the assumption that the appreciating value of the property, along with other advantages of home ownership, would make up the difference.

However, many of these people didn't realize just how much it would cost to own, maintain and repair the new home would be, and that the soaring real estate prices made it difficult to comprehend that with every boom, follows a bust. Soon, many of these people who thought they could get rich off the investment of their home(s) found themselves in an awkward predicament, as they no longer cover the costs with their income. One popular way to cover this gap was through home equity loans, however that option was removed when housing prices began to fall and credit began to tighten. Once the opportunities began to narrow and every option, taking on more debt, left repairs and maintenance on that investment, unpaid. In time, the rising costs overwhelms available income, resulting in foreclosure.

This process of booms and busts, represents cycles that are repeated over and over, again and again, throughout history. It can be reflected in the business cycles, market fluctuations and if I may be so bold, reflected in one's own life experience.

To visualize the cycles of descent that this model (catabolic collapse) suggests, the descent of this civilization, (as with most others) will likely display a gradual arc downward, much like that of a "roller coaster ride", viewing it from a distance. Imagine for a moment, a roller coaster cart (representing civilization) going down the tracks, lasting for 200 years of decline, in time. At the peak (when the civilization is at it's height and begins to decline), the roller coaster cart begins it's descent, it falls for a period of time, comes to a "bottom" then proceeds to make a climb to the next level or hill. The coaster cart then crests that peak (at a lower level from the one preceding it) and begins to make another fall, bottoms, climbs (there may be little "bumps" along the way) to another peak at yet another lower level, and on and on. Another example, may be that of a sledder, starts the slide at top of a mountain, slides into a gully, proceeds up the next hill. The sledder crests that hill and slides through the next gully, through some bumps and up the next hill and back down again and proceeds through this process (or series of hills), all the way down the mountain...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=283

In Part II of Catabolic Collapse, I'll attempt to elaborate more on the cycles of descent.

Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan

2009-01-02T09:58:00.000-08:00

this vehicle was "parked" not 10 feet from the roadway and
the picture taken inside my vehicle.........

HELP

As promised, I beginning to start the "Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan", series. What's happening in this "world class" city, has been at the attention of the main stream media as of late, last night, there was a piece on CBS's "Evening News".

I suppose, this project that I'm ready to embark on, actually started in the spring of last year just shortly after Michael Nystrom, came out with his article, "Second Great Depression in Detroit", found here http://www.depression2.tv/d2/node/118 . At the time, I was deep in the study of John Michael Greer's theory of "Catabolic Collapse" and searching for examples, when it dawned on me, what better an example? In the days and weeks to come, I'll attempt to describe what catabolic collapse might mean and how this might relate to this "once" great city.

In that respect, I want to be ever so mindful and respectful to the people who have, are and will likely have to endure this process, in the future. Most come from proud hard-working backgrounds and I should know, as I was born there, (Wayne, Mi.) in 1959 and have been apart of the city/suburbs, off and on, pretty much my entire life. Having actually worked and lived there over the years, has enabled me a perspective that spans for over 40 years. Up close and personal. I'd like to provide windows of this perspective coming from me, to you.

My posts will likely come fast and furious, as is my style, so be on your toes! In the mean time please enjoy this site, as I find it very complimentary of what I'm pertaining to http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=560 . I'll very likely pick out a story(s) from detroitblog to accompany my own, each time, to better familiar you with this great city and it's people. So, here we go again, down yet another trail of endurance...(Hope your heart can take it....)

Welcome to Yooper's Trails

2008-04-30T16:54:00.000-07:00

Hello, and welcome to Yooper's Trails. Most people who come here are interested in my collapse views and the reasoning behind this. May I suggest by starting in the 2008 archive with, "Collapse or Decline" By reading your way upward, you'll be actually going up the trail with me, getting to know me along the way. Our destination will be, "The Vision", a story based on the assumption that electrical power has been lost across North America. "The Vision" can be found by going to the links listed below.

The reason I brought forth this scenario is because most people envision power outage with collapse. This is my attempt in providing a view in what life might be like with sudden power outage. This kind of information isn't for everyone, so at that, you have my warning. Those of you brave enough to follow me on this journey, GOOD LUCK! If you have any questions, get my attention, I'll be on it like a duck on a June bug!

1.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-i-blackout.html

2.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-ii-pause.html

3.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-iii-chaos.html

4.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-iv-hollowing.html

5.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-v-christmas-in-backwoods.html

6.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-vi-solitude.html

7.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-vii-revelation.html

8.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-viii-new-beginning.html

Thanks, yooper

2008-04-09T07:23:00.000-07:00

A Housing Tale from Northern MichiganSat, 03/29/2008 - 21:40 — yooper
While the Nikkei Index was falling off a cliff and the U.S. was coming out of a brief recession in the early 1990's, my wife and I realized, that if we were to make a move, now was the time, when we could still afford it. I was sharp enough to realize that a trend lasting thirty years and continues to this day would soon price us out of the market. That is, the people retiring here have (retirement) incomes that are greater than mine even at the height of my earning career. They were pricing the poor yooper, right out of the market...
I finally settled on a piece of raw land and hop footed down to the local bank for a mortgage to finance this endeavor. Of course, they were touting their 15 year and 30 year products. Since, I was asking for only 25 thousand, could they do any better? Well, after some haggling, we finally settle on a contract with the 15 year, crossed out and 10 year typed right above it, at 8.25% interest rate.
Like some "American Pie" guys, I wanted that mortgage paid off as soon as possible. Thankfully, the area as well as the entire country did see an economic expansion and the mortgage was paid off before the stock market crash and the short recession after in the early 2000's. However, unlike Japan, the market bounced right back and property prices continued to soar.
Unlike Japan, an island with little natural resource, the U.S. would attempt one final push using it's own resources to mask over it's "limit to growth". Enabling this last expansion, the housing market (for the large part) put American people back to work, in demand for American made products.
Now, our property is "worth" 4 times the amount we paid for it, even if we didn't improve it. The "value" of the homestead is completely out of the range I would be comfortable in buying, in today's prices. However, if I'm correct and the U.S. has peaked like Japan did over 15 years ago, perhaps we'll soon see the same kind of dynamics in our market (if we're lucky) as did the Nikkei? If that happens, then it's reasonable to conclude housing prices will fall accordingly..
More later..
Thanks, yooper
reply

The Rise and Fall of Industrial Economies?

2008-04-09T07:13:00.000-07:00

What I like about this site (as this first appeared on Depression2TV), as the former BNB, here we are again speculating into the future. Since few of us have crystal balls to gaze upon, most of us amass past and present information in presenting our cases. I'm no different in that respect and try to use historical and scientific fact intertwined with unproven theory supporting my assumptions. What does the rise and fall of industrial economies have to do with the housing market? A lot I suspect, and in many ways what is happening here is like a carbon copy of what happened in Japan over 15 years ago and continues to this day. Instead of focusing on those similarities that most of you probably already know about, I'm going to present a similar evolution that the industrial economies of the U.S. and Japan share.First, lets ponder why are the U.S. and Japan economies the largest in the world respectively and have been for decades? There is only one major reason for this and it's fact. When electricity (not oil or gas, derived from coal) made it ECONOMICALLY feasible to couple that power to machines that could mass produce uniform parts, could this only been realized. It did not matter whether Japan had the natural resources to do this, they had the technology/machines capable of producing interchangeable parts and products in a automatic process. If a machine broke down, it was just a simple matter in replacing that part with another like part, since that part was not hand made. It was economically feasible to ship resource there to be manufactured, especially when few countries were even capable of this feat. Only recently, are the economies of India and China capable of this. Furthermore, if the former USSR (and many other countries) were capable, then why didn't they do it? They didn't do it, because they couldn't, simple. To illustrate this concept, think WWII. Both the economies of Japan and the U.S. had this technology. The former USSR only after the war and in a very limited way. After the war, both economies (U.S. and Japan) picked right up and continued to expand, barely missing a beat. Yet another way of looking upon this can be, the machines that have transformed the old world into the modern world, (cars, trucks, planes, heavy equipment, etc.) were born from machines capable of making the parts and products to make this transformation possible. By and large, those products came from the U.S. and Japan. More later...

Thanks, yooper

The rise and fall of industrial economies? Part IIMon, 03/31/2008 - 10:50 — yooper
In part I, we discovered the it was the economies of Japan and the U.S., that transformed the world into the modern era (by and large). This process happened when technology brought about coupling electrical generation to machines capable of mass producing standardized parts. This line of thought follows the Olduvai Theory, to an extent.
During this time, the people within these two economies standard of living (I'm using the term loosely), grew. Higher wages, better nutrition, better health care and a reliable modern infrastructure resulted. Which has brought about an aging population, living longer. This is a common occurrence within industrialized countries the medium age is much higher, depressing birth rates and some are actually in decline now. Of course the populations of China and India are exploding, they are just now coming on line of being industrialised, the medium age of the population is much lower and the birth rate much higher.
Limits to growth? Could Japan have already seen this limit? Especially, if their population is projected to decline? That alone would certainly depress housing prices. I suspect, if not for immigration, the U.S. would have seen similar circumstances. Is the U.S. just now experiencing this?
For years, I've always thought that Asian markets (for that matter the world), followed Western markets. That may be, in the short term. However, at this point, I'm seriously questioning if the Western market is not following the Nikkei in the long term? Furthermore, I'm wondering if the dynamics of the smaller cycles are similar to the larger, long term ones? That is, we'll see decline to be followed by periods of "recovery" that leads to even further decline. For example, look at our top and the dynamics since and then look to Nikkei graph in Michael's story. See a similar pattern?
We'll know for sure as time wanes (not waxes) into the future. Time will tell. If these patterns hold up, then this process is best described as a "catabolic collapse" introduced by John Michael Greer. His theory of catabolic collapse can be found here http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ on the side bar. Another interesting point as Michael has suggested, Japan is almost producing at zero waste, that is a result of this process. Waste being converted into product. An interesting example of this was Henry Ford's idea to make the "Kingsford" brand of charcoal briquettes from wood waste from the factories.
What this means for the future of Japan and the U.S., I do not know. However, if I were to guess, housing prices have a lot further to decline.
Thanks, yooper

The Vision, Part VIII, The New Beginning

2008-02-17T10:29:00.000-08:00

When I was lead through the door, the councilors were seated at a long table in front of maybe 50 chairs. I sat up front and in the center as the councilors thanked me for the medicine. I was urged to discuss the proposal I had mentioned earlier to one of them. I asked the council if it would be alright if those that were to be involved in this endeavor, that they may be present to hear of this account. The council didn't seem to have a problem with this, but wanted to share a few things with me first.

Apparently, other than the local farmers who had been cooperating all along, I was the first from "the outside" not needing assistance and who was presenting something to offer. They were hopeful that there might be others like myself, who might eventually come in. However, they thought this wasn't likely to happen, coming from our area. From what they could gather from eye witness accounts and aerial flights made over the area, suggested that perhaps 80 to 90% of the population had expired. That most small rural communities had not fared well at all during the long winter months. Starvation had disseminated whole communities and in some, evidence of cannibalism had been discovered. I was assured, that it wasn't likely any groups of people survived within at least 40 miles of the location that I came from. That being the very small community next to this one. The council was cooperating with other communities and would soon become trading partners with them. They were cautiously becoming optimistic about the future. However even more were expected to die due to their weakened state before things could be turned around.

I thanked the council for their insight and information. This put my mind at ease somewhat, it did answer many questions that I had. My wife and the others who were going back with us, were brought in and seated.

I explained to the council, that this group of people and I would attempt to bring in "harvests" coming from the area, into the community. I would need time with this group before more people could be brought on in helping to achieve this endeavor, that would likely be in the late summer. We had already enough fuel stock piled to make three such trips back and forth in the boat that I had arrived on. This would likely increase as more fuel was expected to be gleaned. If the council would a lot us the goods to bring forth a dry crop and those of preserves would be much appreciated. The council quickly agreed to this and assured us that they would help all they could providing labor, boats and fuel to bring forth all that could be harvested. The council asked us if there was anything else we might need before we started our journey back? I requested a dozen chickens and chicken wire to contain them, this was also quickly granted. Everyone seemed pleased, I shook hands and thanked each member of the council. Our group would leave the community at nine o'clock the next morning.

At the seven o'clock morning report on the radio, the announcer came on almost ecstatic. The whole community was going to do something that was monumental! It was going to send off, for the first time, a dozen people of it's own on a mission! That this mission would almost guarantee fresh fruit and those of preserves coming into the community! This would greatly ensure the survival of the community in the coming months. That these "explorers" would only be the first needed to start up the operation and many more would be called upon later that summer! Everyone was expected to gather at the "Welcoming Station" to send these "brave hero's" off!

There was a large crowd of perhaps, 2,000 people gathered in front of the station when our group was assembled. Upbeat music was playing over the loud speakers as the crowd cheered! Our group was then greeted with handshakes by every member of the council. Pictures were being taken of this event. Then a two-way radio was presented to the group and more pictures were taken. The councilors wished us well and would be looking forward to our return.

The crowd parted as we made our way back down the hill. There was a lot of tears, hugs and handshakes, moving through these great people. It had been a long journey for them of unimaginable horrors, yet they managed to stay alive. I felt proud to be leading this group of people and knew they would be productive, if only to support the brethren they were leaving behind. They would grow strong again and it would be soon when more people would be brought on. This was the start of a new day and there would be many more to come.

At the beginning of this journey, it was my hope there would a chance of survival for my wife and I. Perhaps now, we'll have the chance to begin a new life together, one that is worth while....

Many thanks, yooper

The Vision, Part VII, The Revelation

2008-02-16T08:49:00.001-08:00

Departure.

My and wife and I were really excited as I started up the boat, we were really taking a risky chance. Chance is the price of life and without taking any chances perhaps life wasn't worth living at all, we'd both agreed. I had never quite felt this alive as the spray of water hit my face as the boat crashed through the waves! We were truly going into the unknown, hoping to find some purpose along the way.

On our way, we passed two people who were waving on the beach near a small community about 30 miles from town. I kept looking back to see if anyone would come out to "greet" us, we were armed just in case, thankfully nobody followed. Closer to town the boat was tied on the other side of a small island not visible from shore. I definitely didn't want to risk everything going into town and wasn't about to burn all bridges going there. We boarded the small row boat and motored even closer to town. We tied up in a little slip, gathered our back packs and would travel the rest of the way on foot.

Walking the roadway and passing a burnt out neighborhood, we came across a sign telling all visitors to check in at the station up the hill. As we approached the station, I was surely getting second thoughts as a high fence was sprawled out on both sides. After entering the station, the first question of business coming from a women behind a counter was, why were we there? When we told her we wanted to inquire about our relatives, a small ledger was brought out and sure enough my two nephews as well as her grandson was on the list. Another large ledger was brought out confirming the deaths of my sister, my uncle and his family also her daughter. Her son and the daughter's husband were unaccounted for, but were presumed dead.

We were asked what was in our back packs and told that no weapons of any kind were allowed into the community. After my sidearm was checked in, I let on that there was medicine in my back pack. This drew the interest from a man sitting behind a desk further back. After introducing himself as a council member, I opened the pack and told him I had a proposition for the commissioners. I told him that I needed men to help bring in a crop and other wild edibles to town and that the medicine was a gift of good faith. The man's eyes sparkled and he was really excited when he learned what I intended to bring in.

The council was to meet at seven pm the next night and I was expected to be up and center for it. In the meantime we were welcomed to the community. My wife and I would lodge at the guest quarters and were welcomed to to eat at one of the shifts the community put on. The water was not running as of yet and we'd have to use the latrines. We were told that that we could meet with the young men that we were seeking there at the six pm shift. The councilor and I shook hands and we left for the quarters.

Having a little time before the six pm shift, we walked around a bit. We could faintly smell latrines off a short distance were the people were being housed. A guard was posted at the entry of these places. It didn't take long to to size up the community and we were just shocked on how much this section of town had changed. It looked like a small military base, neat and orderly.

We decided to check the town out from on top of the hill. As we crested the hill, we were just horrified at what we saw down below! It looked like a town that had been blown apart in WWII. The whole downtown area and large sections of the residential area had burned to the ground. Basements filled with water, debris everywhere and the beautiful trees that had graced the town, gone! Burnt vehicles littered the streets. We both just sat down and gazed at the destruction, not saying a word. Tears welled up in my eyes, my hometown was almost unrecognizable. So many fine times and people had enriched my life here! I felt ashamed of myself for expecting something from these people. What could they possibly give me? Overwhelmed with grief, we wept out load as we made our way back to the community.

We pulled ourselves together the best we could, as we approached the "cafeteria". Hundreds of people were lined up outside the building waiting to go in. Making our way to the back of the line we could smell the stench emitting from these people. It just broke our hearts, never had we seen such a poor lot! Most people had sunken eyes and almost no color in their faces. Most were pathetically thin resembling human skeletons, beneath their tattered clothing. The scene reminded me of pictures I'd seen of the Jewish Holocaust. Once in awhile one would look back towards us, I couldn't bring myself to even look up, to acknowledge them.

Not a word was spoken in our part of the line. We held each other tight as we made our way into the cafeteria. We received our bowl of soup, that looked like water with two small chunks of beef in it and made our way to a table in the center of the room. Shortly after we sat down, I could no longer hold my grief back and began sobbing uncontrollably. This created quite a stir as people got up to see this spectacle. Then I heard my name called, then again! I slowly stood up before all these grand people in the room. Never, have I been so humbled!

Slowly a small group of people came towards our table and then two more from the other end of the room. The grandson, his girlfriend, the two nephews, their wives and the family of one of them approached the table as if coming out of a fog. The people who had been sitting with us got up and made way for those coming over. My once "strong as a bull" nephew, now this side of a walking skeleton, helped me down to my seat.

I sat there paralyzed, trying to regain myself, as the group sat down. When I did finally manage to sit up, I looked directly into each one of their eyes, making my way around the table. While doing this I reached down to the fabric of my soul and whispered, "I have a plan". Nobody said a word, but the sparkle radiating from their eyes looked like moonlight dancing on a riverbed.

While outside and of hearing distance from the others, I explained the plan I had and about the proposition I'd put forth the next night in front of the council. All of the people agreed, they'd rather take their chances on the outside with me than to continue to live like this. I assured all of them the work would be hard but the reward of starting over would be worth it. Also, that there might be a chance of having to defend this new way of life, on the outside. The next night, they would also attend the council meeting.

The Vision, Part VI, Solitude

2008-02-16T06:27:00.000-08:00

two months later.

The winter had been a rough one with more snow than we'd ever seen. I had to give up hunting and gathering more "gifts", as all this loose snow confined travel just around the house. This little game of solitaire my wife and I had been playing, tested our very spirit. I had cut enough firewood with the chainsaw to last perhaps three years and she made trip after trip hauling logs on the plastic toboggan, to the wood pile. Also, I dug a new hole for the outhouse and rolled it over logs to the new spot. Using ferns sure filled a hole quick!

The radio almost became a third member of the family. The winter had been especially hard on the people in town. Even though truck loads of beef had arrived before the deep snows came, it simply wasn't enough as they tried to stretch it out in soups and such. To even compound matters worse the water main had frozen, leaving the entire city without running water. The diesel back up just couldn't keep the flow fast enough and the line had frozen. They endured a couple more major fires but had been lucky as much what was lost, couldn't be lived without. The hardest part was the town had lost a significant amount of people to sickness. Outlying areas were also reporting similar problems, as whole communities were trapped in the snow with very little to eat. Reports coming in from "hams"were getting fewer as more were going off the air. In town, a group of five people were caught raiding a meat locker. They were tried, convicted and hung, all in the same day.

On the bright side, the radio was now playing three hours of music every Friday night! The Christmas music had been such a hit. A little concert was even performed over the air by local musicians from town. Over the winter months the commissioners were announcing constructive plans for the town. These new plans sounded exciting and were going to shape the town toward what the immediate future might bring. They were working together with what they had locally. This is what had kept them alive up to this point and they were going to expand further on this concept.

Organized crews had already been sent out gleaning goods that had been left behind. These goods were being cleaned-up, sorted and stored, in large warehouses. In effect they would become "trade goods" and this is what the new economy would be built upon. Goods and services brought into the community could be exchanged for these goods. Rapid expansion of local cattle, dairy, hog and poultry operations, was to be expected. A communal garden would be started, and acreage supporting grain crops would be moved closer to the community. Fuel that had been stock piled would be used to support these projects. Electrical power however limited, was expected to be created from a renewable resource for the betterment of the community. A new water system was to be implemented this spring.

A mood of optimism was being fostered in town that would hopefully spread throughout the "listening area", via the radio station. Mutual benefaction for everyone would only be realized through the spirit of cooperation. My wife and I thought a great deal about this and about the family we had left behind, who could be barely alive.

We decided that we would attempt to venture back to town in a boat that was left behind by the neighbors. Although my plan had kept us alive and well up to this point, it just wasn't feasible in the long term. I thought it would be just a matter of time before other people would venture here and how could I defend this alone? We both were wondering out load, if living a life like this was really worth it, if it couldn't be shared with others.

one month later.

Spring had finally sprung! My wife and I had stocked piled a considerable amount of gleaned goods that the neighbors had left behind. After the snow pack became hard, trip after trip was made to caches in the woods. On one such trip, we had seen a small plane fly almost over head, the first one we seen in months. Getting the inboard/outboard pleasure boat to the beach was a real job but thankfully it was full of fuel. We'd be taking more than enough fuel to make the trip there and back. This came from our fuel stock pile, that we had built up. A small row boat would be towed behind filled with trade goods. Probably more of what they already had, however we had special medicines that were also left behind by the neighbors. We were set to make one of the biggest trips of our lives.

The Vision, Part V, Christmas in the Backwoods

2008-02-15T13:31:00.001-08:00

Christmas

Even though my wife and I, were snug as a bug in a rug, we often thought about what had become of family members. It's not that they hadn't heard me tell them time and again that something like the crisis might happen. Perhaps, they were blinded by society and couldn't see it coming or refused to believe it, until it was too late? Life is so fragile. We both knew in our hearts that most people were caught completely unable to care for themselves in this environment. We'd often discuss what might became of so and so but at last, this is hard to imagine in a world were money and gold have no value.

Already the snow was so deep, travel could only be made on snowshoes. We hadn't seen snow like this since the 1960's. This was highly unusual as snows in the past twenty years had been relatively light. I continued to harvest game, this kept my mind occupied and away from the house for spells. This gave her some private time, giving each other space is a sure cure for cabin fever.

I was now bold enough to approach some of the neighbor's houses. We were desperately low on some supplies, perhaps I could find something of use. I would gather some "gifts" for my wife, as well for myself, that we would "open" for Christmas. I tried to make life for us as normal as possible, adapting to change is never easy. It took some looking around but I was just shocked at what had been left behind. Dry foods, coffee, sugar, salt, guns and ammo. Perhaps our neighbor, "the rummager" already had enough of these items, but why did he leave? I had assumed the family was starving and left. Why didn't the other neighbors find and utilize this? Then it came to me, since he couldn't take all that he found at once, he would cache items often coming from other homes, leaving some items in favor of carrying others as he went on. I wondered if he would be coming back for them in the spring? Even if he was back at his house, there would be no way he'd make it this far on snowshoes through the soft snow. Perhaps, he knew this and bugged out? Maybe the "pickings"were easier and more plentiful closer to the small community? I was driving myself crazy with these thoughts... Anyway, I told myself, I wouldn't worry about that until spring, and that was at least three months away.

On the way home, my mood changed dramatically, I almost felt like Santa Claus. The coffee was sure to be a hit! When I got back, I placed the backpack on the wood pile before I went inside. There she was singing holiday songs to herself, while she decorated the tree we had gotten the day before. At five o'clock, I cranked up the radio and behold, Christmas music was playing! We hadn't heard music in months! I just couldn't resist, I grabbed the backpack and handed to her. She had tears in her eyes as she took each "gift" out. Not a word about where I had gotten them, she knew. In fact, there were very few words that passed between us, as we sipped our coffee and listened to Christmas music in the candle light.

The Vision, Part IV, The Hollowing

2008-02-13T14:43:00.000-08:00

Two weeks later.

We were beginning to settle into this lifestyle, and there was always something to do around camp. We had to keep our minds occupied on tasks, this helped to prevent some unrealistic thoughts of paranoia, which can occur while isolated. Gathering firewood, picking berries, and fishing took up most of our time. Some of the pressures of our past daily lives were slowly slipping away. No more lifestyle that produced bills, no more having to work to pay those bills, and so on. In fact, we were really enjoying each other's company more, we sure were doing a lot together now. We realized that if we were to "get by" we'd have to rely on each other, more than ever before.

We were going to make a point of not coming into contact with other people which wasn't hard as most people were not venturing far from their houses at all. I had been checking on the "neighbors" from a distance, trying very hard not to be spotted. There was some interaction between a few of them at first but by far and large, they kept to themselves. I could tell most were running out of food and some places I could see no activity at all, where there had been. Once in a grand while I'd hear a shot or two. There were no attempts of anyone trying to cut through the tree piles, perhaps they felt more secure this way too.

Conditions in town were getting graver by the day from the lack of food and medical care, people getting weaker. A flu like symptom was spreading through the tent cities, mostly effecting the elderly and the weak. Meat and milk were now to be rationed amongst those there, but this wasn't nearly enough. Perhaps a third of the town's population had passed on, but they were being replaced by others coming in from surrounding areas, smaller communities and the countryside. The number of refugees coming into town was increasing daily. Most of these people had run out of food or needed medical care and had nowhere else to turn to. Similar circumstances were being reported from other areas, mostly by ham operators now. Horrific stories of rape, murder and even cannibalism.

Some order had been restored in town as most of the roving gangs apparently were leaving for greener pastures or simply giving up and mixing in with the others. People were now disarmed at the tent cities, for better security. Around half of the town had burnt down but there was about a quarter of the population that was still holed-up in their homes, that had running water. Often with 10 to 15 people living in a house.

The situation elsewhere that was being reported, wasn't much better. Whole cities had fallen and millions were reported dead. Reports of where the power had been restored were getting fewer and less creditable, as there were no other radio stations being picked up in the area. For the most part, people had given up any hope of ever seeing governmental relief and openly wondered if there was a Federal government left. People were much more concerned what was happening locally and in surrounding areas.

Three months later.

My wife and I, had moved into a small A that was was used for a vacation home fully equipped with a wood stove, wood oven, hand water pump and a very nice outhouse! These people had been acquaintances of ours before the crisis. They were from a large city outside the state and probably just couldn't make it here, in time. This place was just off the beach and probably a mile away from our primitive camp. We had plenty of wood for heating and cooking that was conveniently already there. This really brightened our spirits and sleeping in a real bed for a change was most welcoming. My wife and I were just thrilled to have a roof over our heads again!

It was late fall now and we would spent the winter there, nice and cozy like. Our supply situation wasn't too bad, we had run out of things like coffee, toilet paper, and toothpaste long ago. However, we still had flour, salt, oil and a good supply of dried berries, fish and other edibles that we had gathered. I was reasonably sure we could make it through the long winter months but after that....

Our nearest neighbor now was over five miles away, the others had either left on foot or had passed on. This neighbor had a wife and two smaller children. I had suspected this man was "cleaning out" most of the homes in the area. I was very thankful this man didn't venture any closer than he did to our camp. He had quit coming this way for about a month, perhaps he had all there was to have. There was always a possibility he'd be back, he always walked the roadways, so it was easy to keep track of him.

In town, sickness had taken it's toll and the population was now just half of what it was before the crisis. People were still trickling in but nothing like the influx of people during the first month. Conditions were much improved, people were getting feed more regular.. When the cold weather came, the tent cities disappeared as people were relocated in one story buildings that could be kept heated with wood, as the natural gas had stopped months ago. Most of the buildings now used were once ground level convalescence homes and apartments. Sanitary conditions also improved as new systems were built. Order had been somewhat restored and the city jail was reopened. People were better organized and a sense of communal spirit was being fostered. The old hospital was let go, in favor a smaller building that had better lightening and was again easier to heat. They had enough fuel to keep the water on in this part of town where all this organization was coming together. There was also enough fuel for the radio station, as this was the new pride and joy of the town.

one week later.

The first snowfall of the season came. I decided to check on our neighbors, perhaps for the last time of the season. When I finally got there after almost a half a day's walk, I was just stunned to see no smoke coming from their house! Being so careful as not to be spotted, I could not find any tracks anywhere in the snow. Upon closer inspection, their bikes were gone. Had they left? I went another two miles further towards the small community and there was no sign of anybody being around. I had to turn around at that point since it would be already dark by the time I arrived home.

At least now with snow on the ground and at least seven miles to the nearest neighbor, I could finally risk shooting my shotgun. Now taking game would be much easier.We had accomplished what we had set out to do, becoming "ghosts" without a soul knowing we were there, at least it appeared that way... Soon the snow would isolate us from the rest of civilization until the spring thaw came. A big sense of relief fell upon me as I made my way back, finally I could let my guard down.

Finally making it home two hours after dark, I found my wife just frantic! I sure didn't want to stress her anymore than what the crisis had already brought upon the both of us. She calmed down considerably when I explained what I had found out. This was good news, almost assuring our survival until spring. In the next couple of weeks there was enough game shot and processed to carry us through spring and into the summer.

The Vision, Part III, Chaos

2008-02-12T13:52:00.000-08:00

Day 5

At sunrise we had coffee and breakfast over the fire. I cranked up the radio, having given it a break the night before. The situation in town had gotten much worse and there were two guards that were now posted at the radio station. The station had gotten refueled and was good to go for another five days. The water treatment plant and hospital had also been refueled. Evidently the State Police had been overrun or gave up trying to block the intersection, I spoke of earlier and returned back to town. One section of town that had lost water earlier had caught fire and was "permitted" to burn down. The hunger situation was getting acute and some pets were reported as missing. There was some good news, that local cattle and milk farmers located just outside town were working with commissioners in a plan that would help alleviate that situation. Still, there was no word from Federal authorities and members of the local National Guard were working in cooperation with the commissioners, in stabilizing what they could.

There was a "sketchy" report that had been received from someone who had flown over Detroit. There appeared to be hundreds of thousands of people on the edge of the Detroit River. Most of the city and the surrounding suburbs were on fire and thousands were seen fleeing in every direction. Large crowds of people were spotted along inland lakes and rivers. Roads and ditches were littered with vehicles. Grand Rapids was also enduring similar circumstances. My wife and I just shuttered, this was the first report of this kind that we'd heard. We had noticed very few planes since the crisis.

At last the announcer said fewer and fewer reliable reports were coming in and that the Associated Press releases had ceased entirely as had all satellite broadcasting . He was cooperating with other radio stations and also amateur radio operators in trying to verify reports. He was optimistic about this new line of communication and could verify that the Detroit metro area was on fire as the smoke was visible from great distances. He assured everyone listening that the radio station was becoming a top priority of it's own. Towards that end, a very large fence was installed around station. For the most part, people in town were cooperating and there had been very few incidents of looting.

Hearing this was surreal, could this really be happening? We both believed it was happening, however we were having a difficult time accepting this. We walked on the beach looking for answers that just weren't there...

Later that afternoon back at camp, we reluctantly turned to the radio again. Events seemed like they were happening at lightening speed and we didn't want to be caught uninformed. On top of the broadcast was a story about small areas in the New England part of the country having power restored near generating plants. The news in town was getting graver. A door to door organized effort had been sent out to pick up the dead. The smell of death was just overwhelming the area. Those that had expired were being temporarily laid to rest at the bottom of a very large and deep gravel pit located on the outskirts of town. Most had expired from exposure from a weakened state from the lack of medicine, food and water. An alarming rate of suicide was also taking it's toll. Also there had been unrest at the prison, they were almost out of food, medicine and none of them were allowed to shower since the crisis, to conserve on water. Sanitation had become an issue there, as well in town. Broadcasts were now to be limited from 7:00 to 9:00 am, 12:00 to 1:00 pm and 5:00 to 7:00 in the evening. The stations generating plant needed a motor oil change and to conserve on fuel, the new hours would be when the station would air until further notice.

Day6

The next morning as soon as the announcer came on at seven, we knew something big had happened. He sounded almost frantic as he reported that the guards at the prison had been overrun around midnight last night. It wasn't soon after the siren had gone off and that shots could be heard, along with screams for help and crying. Bottlenecks in the roadway quickly grew from those trying to flee the situation, trapping traffic in the small community. Of those that did make it into town with nothing more than the clothes on their backs, said it was impossible to access the situation as it was dark. Many of the prisoners were presumed headed for town.

Already, some people in town that had heard of the news were attempting to flee. Bottles necks were beginning to form. Shots were being heard off in the distance, which up to now had been relatively quite. The radio station, now had ten heavily armed guards but we had lost our favorite announcer as he decided to take his chances and flee with his family. Some of the commissioners were also reported as fleeing.

Reports from other radio stations and "ham" operators, were also implying that conditions where they are at were eroding quickly. By now, people were giving up any hope that any governmental relief would be coming at all. The large crowds that had gathered at lakes and rivers near metropolitan areas, waiting for help were getting desperate as chaotic conditions were worsening. Groups of armed individuals were beginning to form, taking what they wanted and were growing in numbers as they went. The announcer drew a breath and wished all those other stations and "hams", that weren't reporting any longer, the best of luck.

We both thought it would be a good idea to ride our bikes close to the community, as we could monitor those that might be coming into the area from town or quite possibly the prison. In addition of carrying my sidearm, we'd pack enough supplies for two days.

As we biked our way towards the very small community, we saw very few people venturing far from their homes. Most were very frightened and would quickly run back inside after spotting us on the road. Apparently there was no organized effort here and people were on their own. The heat was still unbearable and in one place where we stopped to rest, the smell of death wafted through the air. We made a day camp just outside the community where I could watch the road from which we came from, both ways.

The community and the surrounding area was made up of possibly 800 part time "summer" residents, that would dwindle to about 200 full timers that endured the winter here. Probably 85% of the population was seniors. I settled into a spot where I could watch the only intersection. The place looked like a ghost town which was about normal anyway, none of the very few businesses were open. A couple of children appeared riding on their bikes, turned around and went back the way they came. Then a few vehicles came and went, like they were checking to see if anything was happening, it wasn't. A couple more passed through like they were going somewhere. Nobody even came down the road we had came from or ventured down it.

At five o'clock, I cranked the radio to life. The announcer came across almost as defiant. Shots and screams were being heard across town. Small groups of people had been reported on the move, some armed, others not. Many of those that had fled town were now coming back, many on foot as roadways became blocked with traffic bottlenecks and trees that had been deliberately felled across the roads. No wonder there wasn't much traffic! A lot of people in town were "holed-up" in their homes and armed guards were placed at the entry of the tent cities. It seemed that half of the town were now at these tent cities. We wondered if our family were among them. Two more areas of the town were permitted to burn down, as the Fire Department would not go out under these conditions. Prisoners from the county jail in town, were released.

Day 7

We didn't bother with the seven am report and returned quickly back to our camp. As soon as we got there, I loaded the small chainsaw into the bike's basket and returned back towards the small community again. I began falling trees across the roadway where a series of curves occurred. Dropping a bunch in one area then proceeding to another out of sight from the first bunch. I had three good pile-ups when the saw ran out of gas and oil. I knew this was preventing people access to the small community and beyond, but what were they to accomplish there, anyway? I went back to camp to refuel the saw and proceeded to make another huge pile-up using all the fuel in the saw at one spot. If someone should attempt to cut through the last mess, I would be able to hear it. That would give us time to adjust to our next move, whatever that might be. No one appeared all the while I was doing this to my knowledge. It was almost five 0'clock by the time I made it back to camp.

As I cranked, the radio came to life. The announcer was somewhat upbeat, finally an armed group of men in three 4-wheeled pick-ups went to the cattle farm and brought back meat for the tent cities. Some prisoners that had gathered in the woods were taking beef from the farm but this wasn't viewed as a big problem. Many prisoners came to town simply to give up as they realized what was happening and wanted to help. These men had taken refuge in yet another area along the water front and in turn for their cooperation they would also be feed. They were also required not to be armed.

There were still armed bands of towns people and prisoners who were raising havoc with those still holding out in their homes. Shots rang out from time to time. Even though the security at the tent cities was much better, they were experiencing problems of their own, the people were armed and conflicts were starting to break out. Sanitation and privacy were becoming problems. Starvation was fast becoming a huge problem. As bad as things were in the tent cities, people were now questioning if conditions were actually better there than the hold-outs, some having to repeal repeated attacks from roving gangs.

Elsewhere, Detroit and other large cities throughout the nation lay in ruins. The great crowds seen around rivers and lakes had dispersed, leaving hundreds of thousands of the dead behind. Small bands of people were reported as scattering everywhere and the dead laid on the ground like from a huge battlefield. Reports from the outside where getting fewer and fewer...

My wife and I, cuddled at the fire. Reaffirming to each other that this nightmare was indeed happening and was real. It was almost beyond belief and our imaginations what we were hearing over the radio. We knew that life outside our little camp would never be the same. We almost felt guilty in someway or another.. Perhaps the only difference between us and them was that we were prepared to meet the challenge of this new day before it came and they weren't, as strange as that might sound.

The Vision, Part II, The Pause

2008-02-06T14:02:00.000-08:00

Day 1.

Upon waking in the morning, I dashed to the window to see if the light was on from the power pole indicating the power from the grid was restored. No such luck and off to the generator house. Passing the 250 gallon tank that feed the diesel generator, I stopped briefly for a moment. I thought about all the countless trips I had made filling it, was it just fallacy?

No sooner than I got back to the house and sat down there was the neighbor at the door with two 5 gallon water containers. They had flushed their toilet twice and had lost all pressure from the well. I had faintly heard their RVs generator earlier when I was out and figured that's where they must have spent the night, staying cool. The neighbor and I sat down to watch the news most of it was local, how people were making do without power, grilling outside and such. When it came to reports on the hurricane, there was very little footage or clips of the actual destruction. Apparently almost all the oil refineries were either destroyed or severely damaged. There was no mention of the situation in the Western states, what so ever. The neighbor mentioned that he was happy to have topped off the tank in his truck and hoped the power would soon be back on as he only had 5 gallons of gas left for his generator. He thanked me for the water and left.

The phone lines were still up at this point, however I couldn't get on the Internet with my PC. Guess my server didn't have a power back-up or something. Deciding to go down to the mailbox, I noticed very little traffic on the freeway which I can see from my place. It was a pretty much a laid back day for my wife and I, as we just hung around the house doing what chores we could in the midst of the howl coming from the generator...

When our local news came on it was reported that most people were treating the day like a holiday. Much as the day before, going to the beach to cool off and having backyard cookouts. Gas stations and banks were all closed but some businesses remained opened. Some hardware's, restaurants and grocery stores were open, however most were refusing credit card transactions. Clips were shown of bare shelves by the end of the day in some stores.

When the national news came on there was more coverage of the devastation this time. A clip was shown of survivors passing a bottle of water between themselves. One reporter said they had a difficult time reaching the area because fuel was hard to come by with the power being out. Again the President briefly came on at seven, this time she looked like she hadn't slept for days. She started out by urging everyone to stay put especially in effected areas and that everything that could be done, is being done! She toned down a bit explaining that the damage was estimated in the 100's of billions of dollars, as clips of aerial footage was shown. The President was clearly shaken when she let on, although there had been no confirmation, the death toll would likely be in the 100's of thousands, if not millions. After a long pause she went into some kind of plan where nuclear vessels would provide power at unnamed ports and that by hard wiring into the system, this could restore some grids. However, many were deployed halfway around the world and it would take time. Again she urged everyone except emergency personal to stay home until help arrives.

Day 2.

Again, no power and there was the neighbor with his two water jugs. After taking care of him, I thought I'd go for a bike ride, this time there was almost no traffic on the freeway. When I came to an area where the freeway and another major highway intersected, there was the State police, blocking traffic. When a vehicle did approach it was turned around and sent in the direction it had came from. A little further up the road was a restaurant, I'd rest there before returning home. I mentioned to some people there what I saw down the road and they looked at me like I was stupid. Didn't I know that all main highways had been closed? Already there was a highway filled with "parked vehicles" six miles long coming from the Detroit metro area! While leaving the restaurant I thought to myself, at least I didn't drive there.. On my way home, I thought of a route we would take through the back roads to avoid the police, en route to our "bug-out" destination.

As soon as I got back, I began to assemble all my survival gear and food stuffs that we had stored. It was soon all loaded in the van, I wanted to be able to leave at a moments notice and was even thinking about fleeing at that point. Of course, this shook up my wife quite a bit, but I assured her, we'd at least give it one more day and see what happens. I had found the crank up radio while going through the gear, now was the time to use it.

The local radio station was also urging people to stay home and not to drive anywhere, as stranded vehicles were beginning to pile up, especially at gas stations. It was also being suggested that there was no point going to grocery stores, as there was nothing left and they would not be restocked until after the power was back on line. The county and city commissioners were to have a joint meeting to discuss any ideas if the power were to remain off for any length of time.

The local news at six o'clock was much the same. Stories of local officials making plans of better coping with the situation, however there was no word from the federal government, as of yet. On the national news there were more stories about the devastation the hurricane had caused and heroic efforts of some people. It was also reported that other countries around the world were experiencing weather related tragedies of their own. The President would be back on tomorrow at seven.

Day 3.

As I went out to start the generator, I could hear the neighbor's humming right along not missing a beat. Most people were certain that the government would restore the power soon, it was only a matter of time. When he came over to get water, I inquired where was he getting the gas to run the little generator? He was taking it from his vehicle...

Today, I would bike to a lake that was next to a small community, not a far drive from home... Within this community of 3,000 people is a large prison facility, housing about 4,000 violent criminals. Coming into view of the small lake, there were rows of tents maybe three deep where the small park was! Children were playing in the water cooling off, splashing around having the time of their life. I rested near a group of women sitting on a picnic table and started to eavesdrop on their conversation. One woman's husband gave another man 15 dollars for a pack of cigarettes! All the women were very concerned as they were running out of food and what they had was spoiling fast from the heat. There was some concern stemming from small talk, that the guards were having to put down small rebellions at the prisons. They openly wondered how long it would be before something big might happen? All the guards were ordered not to leave the grounds and had been put on double shift rotation, covering for ones who had not reported for work. Mounting the bike, I asked them why there were so many tents in the park? Apparently there was little or no water pressure in some areas of the community and it was just easier camping at the park with water and outhouses... No shit! I thought as I pedaled away.

Of course, my wife wasn't too thrilled after hearing this information. Turning to the radio, the situation in town wasn't much better, "tent cities" were springing up in all the waterfront parks. Again, certain parts of town were receiving little or no water at all. Food banks such as the Salvation Army were being overwhelmed with people looking for something to eat. A drive was put on by groups going house to house pleading for food for those that had none. Another problem had cropped up, the county morgue was now "overflowing" mostly from seniors living at high rise complexes. The commissioners promised there would be diesel fuel to keep the back-up generators going at the water treatment plant, the hospital, and one radio station. Another story was that firefighters had put out two small fires but the department was wondering if they would have enough water pressure to put down a big fire if one should arise. It seemed the local radio station had more than enough local news to report and reported very little from outside our area.

When the national news came on TV, it was much the same. There was plenty of news to report from New York city. "Great crowds" of people were forming, who had no where to go. Conditions from high rise apartments and certain neighborhoods had become "unlivable". A clip was shown of Central Park, literally filled with people. The stench from rotting food and human waste was becoming unbearable. All roadways looked like huge parking lots, making it impossible to get fuel delivered at some essential back-up power plants. Bodies of those who had expired from the heat or dehydration, were being stacked behind buildings. The situation there was described as deteriorating quickly and close to being chaotic.

As promised, the President did come on at seven. What a night and day difference! This time she looked rested and refreshed. She was now reporting from another location, not the Oval Office. She sounded optimistic when she reported that the Northeastern part of the nation's electrical system had been restarted, only to be shut down due to mounting problems once it started. However, she assured us that this was a start and more attempts would be made soon as possible. System designers were now being contacted and the power would be restored as soon as possible. She said they were having their problems organizing due to the circumstances, but would soon begin efforts in stabilizing the situation. We were to remain calm and hopeful through this crisis, that soon relief would be on it's way! She would again address the nation, as soon as she knew more.

Day 4

Our neighbors came over this morning to shower and fill their RV with water. They were pretty shaken after hearing a report of someone who flew over Tucson, Arizona. Apparently thousands of people were fleeing the city on foot, leaving a trail of dead bodies behind them! Furthermore, it looked like the entire city was engulfed in flames. Similar reports were coming in from amateur radio operators near Las Vegas, Nevada. Many of those people out West had been without power for over six days now.

The neighbors came by for more water and were wondering if we were going anywhere after seeing that our van was all packed? I told them , that we'd not be sticking around long should the guards be overrun at the prison or for that matter, just letting the prisoners go. They hadn't thought about this possibility at all...

Turning to the radio, the conditions in town were worsening. Vehicles were being abandoned everywhere that this was creating problems and people were being urged not to drive anywhere. Already there were four abandoned vehicles that we could see from our place on the freeway. There were reports of people breaking into "summer homes" in search of food and other supplies. We wondered what our relatives in town were doing, if anything at all. There was no way of knowing since our phone line had gone down. I certainly wasn't going to risk a trip into town to find out either.

It was time to flee before we could be trapped in. Both my wife and I, cried as we knew we were leaving family and friends behind. Thoughts of leaving this home were overwhelming, we had come to love this place that we built together. Clearing the land, building the house and the many happy times that had come with it. Feeding and now abandoning the wildlife that had become our friends. Neither one of us could look back as we drove away. We stopped by the neighbors and offered the use of the house and the food we had left. They seemed somewhat happy accepting this offer. They too, were wondering if they would soon flee in the RV, but would give it a couple more days anyway. I told them to take anything they wanted from the house, that we'd likely wouldn't be coming back anytime soon. At least the fueled generator was there, that way they wouldn't have to use theirs...

Our destination was over 50 miles away and I definitely wanted to make this trip in the daylight, so I could see as far down the road as possible. We took the back roads through a lot of farmland, crossed one major highway and bypassed a small community, about 15 miles from the house. We hadn't come across another moving vehicle and at that point, I knew we were home free. The rest of the trip would be made through the wilderness with very few homes along the way. We would have to drive through another small community where I was raised and then a little more than ten miles beyond that. I could tell people were scared and were not just venturing out, as we only passed one moving vehicle during the entire trip.

We were both just relieved having made the trip without a hitch however I was armed, just in case. At least I didn't have to worry about that part anymore, I don't know what I would have done if we were confronted. We sat up camp just inside the woods on the shore of Lake Superior. Here, I would be able to defend us or have more than 40 miles of wilderness to retreat to. It was also here that we could sustain ourselves from the land itself, if it came to that.

My wife has some serious misgivings about leaving home and the security of it. A lot of people would have given the world to have what we had left, plenty of fertile land, water and house in the country that was paid for. However this home was somewhere in the middle of a town with a population of over 10,000 on one side and a sizable prison population on the other. I couldn't risk my life or that of my wife, trying to defend this home on land that couldn't sustain us especially under these conditions...

After our camp was set up, my wife and I, sat on the beach and watched the sunset just living for the moment....

The Vision, Part I, Blackout!

2008-02-06T07:12:00.001-08:00

Blackout!

It had been an extremely hot summer season here in the North Country, as well as for the entire nation. Business as usual went on though, day after day through the sweltering heat. According to news reports, the heat wave was so severe demand for electricity was actually exceeding supply in many parts of the country. Once again California and other parts out West were experiencing "rolling blackouts" in an attempt to distribute available power. Even parts of Texas were experiencing rolling blackouts from time to time. While the North and East Coast regions were experiencing flickering and sometimes dimming of the lights, now and then. These "brownouts" seemed like they were becoming more and more common, lasting longer in duration. Climate Change was the talk everywhere as temperatures soared 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

It was reported on the news daily, just how world wide this heat wave really was and that this country was one of the better ones coping with it. Horrific stories were constantly being reported about countries that were fairing far worse, many had lost electricity completely. To make matters worse, a very large hurricane was building strength and was expected to land on the Southeast Coast of the country, within the next day. The bulk of the news was heat related and stories ranged from those expiring usually the elderly, to ways of keeping your pets cool. Following up every newscast was a plea for people to conserve on electrical energy. Mostly by controlling use of air conditioning, however this was extremely hard to do with temperatures soaring into the 100 degree range for most of the country.

This evening while watching the news, it was announced that almost all of the Western Interconnection Network had gone down, leaving millions of people without power. All 14 grids in California had failed! People there had been urged to stay put and to stay calm as the power was expected to be restored soon.

The next day while working in the blazing sun, the Category 5 hurricane was dominating the news coverage on the radio. It was pounding the East Coast and moving it's way inland along the Gulf states towards Texas. It wasn't long before the music stopped and that's all they were talking about, kind of like when 9/11 happened. Apparently, Atlanta had been hit very hard and people were doing all they could to get out of the way of the storm's path. "Sketchy" reports were also coming in that the California situation hadn't improved, that now almost all the Western states had blackout. By now the condition was now spreading to many parts of the much smaller Texas Interconnection Network, putting even more people without power. Then, it was back to coverage of the hurricane.

I'll admit I was getting a little scared at that point and decided to go back into the plant to cool off. As soon as I walked through the doorway, I noticed the lights were flickering and dimming. Worse yet, the huge electrical saw motors were surging! I immediately ran over to shut them down and threw the switch disconnecting them for the plants power. I proceeded to shut down the entire operation and sent the workers home. There was not much complaining as they too, wanted to go home after listening to what was happening over the radio. Almost surreal, my instincts were telling me something horrible was happening now.

There was no greeting of the usual hum of air conditioners when I arrived home. Instead my wife greeted me at the door, informing me that the power had gone completely out. Turning right around, I made my way to the generator house and within minutes, power had been restored to the house.

At noon the news came on and a visibly shaken newscaster told us that the station was on reserve power. Apparently the whole State had lost power, including surrounding states and most of Canada. They had no idea of how long it would take before the power would be back on line but to be patient and hopefully it would be restored soon. The hurricane was reported as the largest ever that had reached the mainland and reports were becoming sketchy, as the power had been lost for the entire Southern region of the nation. The President was to address the American people the status of the situation in the South at seven o'clock, right after the national news.

At seven o'clock, a very tired and distressed President began her address from the Oval Office. She started out describing the enormity of the hurricane and how it's powerful force had devastated Atlanta. The largest hurricane ever recorded to reach inland had apparently wrecked havoc across the entire Gulf state region and the assessment of the damage would begin tomorrow. There were no estimates in the loss of human life at the time. She regretted to inform everyone that the entire North American continent had temporarily lost power. Due to the catastrophic damage the hurricane had left in the South and the deteriorating condition the Western system was already in, engineers could not act fast enough before the entire system went down or was deliberately shut down to prevent further damage. She believed that this outage would only be a temporary condition and that some portions of the system would soon be back on line. The President then took a deep breath and further explained she was declaring a State of National Emergency and Martial Law was enacted. She would be ordering all armed forces back to the U.S. immediately and for all National Guardsmen to report for duty.

After regaining her composure, the President reassured the American people that Homeland Security was prepared and would soon be working with State and local officials. She was closing all ports of entry into the country for the time being. She suggested that everyone should stay put and remain calm. To cooperate with federal, state and local officials in the task of getting life back to normal as can be. But for now, to remain hopeful and upbeat in making an unpleasant situation the best it could be. Again, she repeated to stay put for now and wait for the power to be restored or when help arrives.

My wife and I, just stared at each other in a daze when that silly sitcom came on right after the address...

The Vision, Intoduction

2008-01-28T21:10:00.000-08:00

Welcome!

"The Vision" is a narrative based on the assumption that the power has been lost in North America. Many of the concepts from my, "Royal Flush in Spades" series (found in the January achieves) are incorporated to bring forth this scenario. I first described this last year over at BNB (Bullnotbull.com).

All trails have a beginning and a end. The beginning of this trail can be found under, "Collapse or Decline? Or Just Another Day?" By reading your way upward you'll be actually going down this trail with me.

"The Little Sisters" series, is a story about the spirit world I encountered while being in the backwoods of Northern Michigan.

I'll try and answer any questions that you might have, good luck!

Thanks, yooper

The Royal Flush in Spades, Part II, Adding it up

2008-01-27T16:35:00.000-08:00

After reviewing many of the concepts I've presented here, it's my hope dear reader, that you might add a lot of these up and make something of it as you see fit. Many writers when describing a scenario have themes of Peak Oil, Climate Change, Financial Collapse, as you might have noticed, mine is of Natural Consequence. Perhaps our society will evolve in a natural process to a new environment from the consequences of all three and more? Just exactly what that natural process will be, I think is anybody's guess. Back at the old school house, the instructors took very little stock on just how collapse would happen but what that collapse might look like and the consequences of it.

Under the "lights are out for good scenario" I'm going to attempt to explain what the consequences of this might be. In this attempt, I'll be going back to each card and describe what the consequences might be under this scenario.

Starting with the Ace first, or electricity, we learned that indeed that it is possible the entire North American electrical system could go down, so it's a real possibility that the lights can go out for everyone. In this case, it would be extremely hard to imagine for the power to be restored in time, before catastrophic events would begin to emerge. It's a fact, that wide spread area's of the country can go down at once and a possibility, that even more areas can go down in attempts to bring the power back on line. Time being of the essence until problems escalate into something insurmountable within the time frame before our society breaks down. Furthermore, as time wanes, the possibility of this actually happening becomes greater. Not only is this system aging, but there is more and more demand put on it. Could it be just a prolonged heat wave that will actually bring it down? The people over at BNB, was just shocked when I revealed that I thought this eventually might bring down one of the regional networks. Where was the electromagnetic bombs or terrorists attacks?! I also expressed my view that if one regional network went down it might be likely the other two would eventually go down the same way or by attempts to restore the broken one(s). Moreover, I thought it wouldn't matter anyway.

Even if the system were to go down like the size of the Northeastern Blackout of 2003 for a couple of weeks, it would be doubtful that even if the whole world came to our aid, it could stop the chaotic situation of 50 million people! Especially if this happen during the winter months. If this country had a hard enough time rescuing the people of Katrina, a catastrophe of this magnitude would be unimaginable and unmanageable. How would these people keep warm? How could the world even deliver the amount of relief to that many people in time, before they expired? Without power, it simply cannot happen. It's just not feasible.

Almost all modern infrastructure was designed, built and maintained under the assumption of continuous power. Without this infrastructure our environment will change immediately. It will be the end of our world as we knew it. As discussed earlier, city water would not last after this many days, how would you get fuel to all these thousands of back-ups in time? Wouldn't the grocery store be cleared out after the first day or two? How would it be restocked? How well does your furnace work without the blower powered by electricity? How far do you think you would get on a road system that is dependent on lights? How would you refill your tank? How would you take money out of a bank dependent on computers?

By the way, do you think you'll go to work under such conditions? Can you even perform your duties without electricity? Do you actually believe police, firemen, and other crucial personal in keeping order, will actually report to work, leaving their families behind under such a scenario? Even if they did, how long would it take before this type of personal would be overwhelmed? Don't feel alone if you don't have answers to these question, I don't either. However, this is the consequences if the lights go out for good or for any lenght of time. Not looking to good, eh?

On to the King of Spades, population dynamics. What happens to a population when you suddenly take away their daily requirements of food, water, shelter and security? Of course, you will have a chaotic situation at hand. That is exactly the situation the Dept. of Energy has suggested would happen. When the lights are out for good, better yet, if the lights don't come back on in time, the environment that we are so dependent on expires. Many of those who are unwilling or incapable of adapting to the new evolving environment will die, since they cannot meet their daily requirements needed for survival. There will be some seeking to isolate themselves from this situation and flee to yet another environment, perhaps the woods, hills, desert, etc.. They will have to have the acquired knowledge that comes from experience in order to do so and a good deal of luck. Perhaps there will be another day when the sun will shine for these people, however that will be after "the monster" has moved on... Good Luck to the people who attempt this and hope to see you in the woods!

The Queen of Spades, water. Without electricity, there will be a whole lot, less of it. Almost the entire population gets their potable water from deep wells. It takes power to pull that water up, called electricity. This is an example of the decoupling of electrical generation/uniform parts of mass production (the pump), that I was referring to earlier, that had supported a population of this size. Without it, well...... Therefore most of the population will have to rely on surface water to meet their needs. If this water is potable, how long will it be? Back on BNB, I predicted that there will be more people who will expire from dehydration and water born disease than from starvation. This only makes sense because when the body is deprived from both, it'll die quicker from lack of water, that's a fact.

The Jack of Spades, food. Without power, how can we expect to feed the present population? This is impossible! It takes electrical power to process seed, power to transport seed, power to plant seed, power to nourish seed/crop, power to harvest crop, power to transport crop, power to transform crop into edible food, power to distribute food, and power to prepare this food to be acceptable to a population of 300 million people. Have I missed something here? Imagine feeding the entire population of the average community from the gardens grown in that community! Even if the gardens were large enough, try hand pumping the required water that garden would need. Of course, this is assuming the water table is within reach. This is also assuming that crop would be left to mature to produce next year's seed. Is that even possible with most of crops grown today? I think not. Of those that do have a resonable stock of food, they would likely have to defend it from those who do not. Especially, those that are not isolated from large populations...

The Ten of Spades, our industrial environment. Our industrial environment started when cheap fossil fuels made it economically feasible to couple electric generation with mass production of uniform parts. Take any one of these out of the equation and we don't have this environment any longer. If we don't have this environment, we cannot support the people that was produced by it. It's just that simple. People will have to find another environment and try to adapt to it, as I said before, this is easier said than done. Isolation can be a double edged sword. Areas where the populations are high and the physical boundaries (water, mountain ranges, etc.) are hard to breech, present unique problems within themselves. Another facet of this thought might be physical limitations, an example of this might be, if a population cannot reach water in time, if the distance is too great to reasonably obtain it, than that population becomes isolated. The extinction process begins since that population cannot reach another similar environment (one that has water). Yet another facet of isolation, of those that do breech another livable environment become isolated themselves from the rest of the population, this too can pose problems within itself....

The industrial environment's area mass is hugh, it encompasses everywhere that has infrastructure, transmission lines , roads and such. Land that does not have this feature of being civilized is hard to find. Land that can support even a small population without infrastructure, even harder. A small population that can support itself, even harder yet....

God, grant me the ability to accept the things I cannot change, to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference.................................

The Ace of Spades, V, Power outage

2008-01-27T11:10:00.000-08:00

Power Outage

While gleaning through the Wikipedia article, "Power Outage", I've came up with most of these facts.

A power outage may take one of three forms. 1) Blackout: where power is completely lost. A "rolling blackout" is a common term for a controlled way of rotating available generation capacity between various districts, thus avoiding wide area total blackouts. 2)Brownout: where the voltage level is below the normal minimum level specified for the system. This can be particularly damaging to electric motors. Some brownouts , called voltage reductions, are made to prevent a full power outage. 3)Dropout: where loss of power only lasts seconds.

Power failures are particularly critical for hospitals, since many life critical medical devices and tasks require power. For this reason hospitals, just like many other enterprises have emergency power generators which are typically powdered by diesel fuel. Power outage may also be the cause of sanitary sewer overflow, a condition of discharging raw sewage into the environment (water).

Under certain conditions, a network component shutting down can cause current fluctuations in neighboring segments of the network, though this is unlikely, leading to a cascading failure of a larger system of the network. This may range from a block to an entire city, to the ENTIRE GRID. Modern power systems are designed to be resistant to this sort of cascading failure, but it may be unavoidable. It has recently been argued on the basis of historical data and computer modeling that power grids are self-organized critical systems. These systems exhibit unavoidable disturbances of all sizes, up to the size of the ENTIRE SYSTEM, and any attempts to reduce the probability of small disturbances only increase the probability of the larger ones. Some observers have expressed concern that there is a tendency to erode the resilience of the network over time which is only corrected after the major failure occurs.

Restoring power after wide-area outage can be difficult, as power stations need to be brought back on line. Time being of the essence, before cascading problems amount to insurmountable problems. Normally, this is done with the help from the rest of the grid. In the total absence of grid power, a so-called "black start" needs to be performed to "bootstrap" the power grid into operation.

An example of this power loss through cascading events occurred Aug. 13, 2003. It was the largest blackout in North American history. Effecting 10 million people (1/3 the population) of Canada and 40 million (1/7 the population ) in the U.S., encompassing eight states. During this outage water systems in several cities lost pressure forcing boil water advisories. Cellular telephones experienced significant service disruptions. Most interstate passenger rail transport in the affected areas were shut down and the power outage's impact on international air transport and financial markets were widespread. Meanwhile, the reliability and vulnerability of all electrical power grids was called into question....

At this point we can assume that a threat of the entire grid shutting down is real, it's a possibility. To think that the Northeast Blackout occurred in 2003, leaving 50 million people without power, is fact. I view this threat to our present environment very much as viable as Peak Oil, Climate Change and Financial Collapse.

The Ace of Spades Part IV, The North American Grid

2008-01-27T06:31:00.000-08:00

THE NORTH AMERICAN GRID

Again, I must ask you my dear reader, "Why do you suppose, almost everyone associates the power being out with collapse?" Could this be some kind of worldwide, wide held premonition? However, when it comes to discussing this topic of what life might be like without power, it ranks a close second to that of die-off, of being unpopular. It is so unpopular, that almost no one knows much about it, they simply can't imagine what life might be like without it or have some kind of fantasy, totally unrealistic view. Could it be, like the industrial environment (the coupling of electrical generation/mass production of uniform parts) that has produced and maintained the present population and the "de-industrial" environment (the de-coupling of electrical generation/ mass production of uniform parts) will actually produce the die-off? Do you suppose some people are unconsciously associating life without power with die-off? Or do mechanisms that assure survival of the species block these kind of thoughts of some people? I think it could lay somewhere in between.....

Back at the old school house, the instructors likened the electrical grid or grids, to that of the nervous system of the human body. In fact, our nerves run much like electrical current, that it's electrical current sending messages to the brain. An example of this might be, a pin prick to the finger will send an electrical charge through the interconnected nervous system that will stimulate pain in the brain. Any damage of nerve along this route and brain never receives this "message". If the body sustains enough nerve damage it automatically begins to shut down and die.

What is the North American grid? Gleaning from an article entitled, "GridWorks", from the U.S. Dept. of Energy, these are the following facts. The North American grid, consists of three independent networks, Eastern Interconnection, Western Interconnection, and the Texas Interconnection. These networks incorporate international connection with Canada and Mexico. In 1940, 10% of energy consumption in America was used to produced electricity. In 1970, that fraction was 25%. Today it is 40%, showing electricity's growing importance as an energy supply. It has the unique ability to convey both energy and information. It's a world-class system, however it's facing some serious challenges. The majority of the 10,000 power plants, are generally long-lived investments; the majority of the existing capacity is 30 years or older.

Electric power is essential to modern society. Economic prosperity, national security and public health and safety CANNOT be achieved without it. Communities that lack electric power, even for SHORT PERIODS have trouble meeting basic needs of food, shelter, water, law and order.

Isn't this what I've been eluding to all along?

Has Progress Peaked?

2008-01-25T10:15:00.000-08:00

The above picture is what was the modern day "scrapper" of the 1870's. It was brought to the farm undoubtedly by schooner ship and was very likely the first piece of heavy equipment in an 80 mile radius. A team of oxen were used to pull the pre-industrial piece of machinery and the levers in back of the shovel were driven into the earth by men. It was primarily used to scoop earth making a ditch and dumped making a road bed. This process of making roadway is still used today.

Progress: a proceeding forward; advancement or improvement in mental, moral, or physical condition. growth or development. source The Winston Dictionary, Advanced Edition, 1946.

Back to Duncan's Olduvai theory, the first phase of human history basically was when simple tools and weak machines (like the one pictured above) limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a point of equilibrium with nonrenewable resources and the natural environment.

Without getting too technical and looking at a worldwide view, it might be fair to point out that we're probably in the latter stages of the second "industrial" phase. Not quite yet in the third phase. The instructors thought that once global progress ceased, the die-off would soon begin. Furthermore, once forward progressed stopped, there would be a "pause" before another direction or decline could take place. An example of this might be that a train must come to a complete stop from going forward before it can go in reverse. Pauses can be very hard to spot, when looking at market trends for example, sometimes they are only realized in retrospect. However, what we're talking about here is a break within the 100 year industrial life span. Perhaps, the severe recession we had during the early 1980's, was this the pause in this country? This is mighty close to what Duncan predicted to happen in 1979. Have we progressed beyond this? The answer is, yes, beyond a doubt, we were still growing beyond 1979! Correct? We cannot continue growing in population, economy, and extraction of resources, once the extraction of those resources begins to diminish! Of course, all resources are not all going to diminish at once, making it extremely hard to pin point when the scales actually dip the other way. An example of a diminished resource could be the fisheries of the world.

Even though, I believe we have declined here in North America for the past thirty years, we are becoming more and more a part of a global economy that hasn't. Hasn't this actually "masked" our true situation in this country? Thinking of Russia, without a doubt, they have come back and their standard of living continues to grow from the early 1990's when the former Soviet Union collapsed. Look at the growth of the economies of India and China! Another notion the instructors had, is that there would very likely be a explosion of resources extracted and consumed toward the end of the "age of progress". I am certain, they were thinking of terms of 1930- 1970, however they are still correct in that respect, only that there's a lot more resource than they dare imagined. Of course, this only makes sense as it would require more resource to maintain the population.

The instructors all believed that once the world ceased to progress, there would be a short pause and then we would start our descent. That this era will be short lived and marked by power outages, finally bringing down entire electrical grids around the world. That is, once electrical generation was decoupled with mass production of parts (one cannot happen without the other and this actually defines the industrail society), this present environment (age of progress) would end adruptly. At that point, the industrial society (age of progress) could not support the population it created. Once that happened, the die-off would begin in earnest, end of story (the instructors would not speculate what might happen after that).

Pedaling Backward, Going Foward

2008-01-24T14:06:00.000-08:00

Here's a pic of my Great Grandmother's wood oven. Gee, do you think there will be a day when I'll be happy to have it? Do you think I should go over and get that heavy pup, right now?

I'll just bet that when my Great Grandmother got this oven new, she had the newest modern innovation of the day! Suppose, the other women in the small community came over to gaze at it? Marvel at it? Do you think there will again be a day, that this very oven will be marveled at again? If you answered "yes" to that question call yourself a "reversalist".

Right now, a very interesting conversation is going on over at The Oil Drum. Sharon Astyk has an article called,"Is Relocation Doomed?: A Response to Staniford's "Fallacy of Reversibility". My friend FAR and I are discussing this over at his site, "Tales from FAR Manor". What's actually being talked about? Ha! ha! "going back", we learned from the Olduvai Theory, that as energy consumption declines so will our lifestyle and population. Going back a little further, I discussed Jay Hanson's thoughts of why most people can only think "progressively". This could be the classic example, of someones vision of the future who simply cannot think of terms of decline. They may see a future with less energy however, we'll invent our way out of it, or do something different to continue the linear progression of human history, as they see it. Most of the "controlled theories" of the future are derived from this kind of thought. Most of these people have one thing in common, they do not understand the laws of thermodynamics. It takes power to make power! You cannot come up with more power if it's not there to be had. Can't borrow it and pay later either. For every action there is a reaction.....

Back over at BNB, I described a concept, "pedaling backward, going forward". Those of us back at the old school house enjoyed going on our annual spring trip to Mackinac Island. There is no motorized vehicles allowed on the island, so it's either pedal or horseback to get around. Naturally, when we were over there, the kids from the island would show off their skills on bicycles. This included "pedaling backward, going forward". That is their butts were on the handlebars, they were pedaling backward, going forward. What a strange site to see! Anyway, I liken this to what we could expect on the other side of the curve on our descent. With our energy resources depleting, life could be similar as going back in time when we had the same amount of energy. The kids knew the roads very well, they have traveled them all their life, by viewing the past (facing the scenery backwards) they could tell where they were headed (going forward) in the future. They would only once in a while turn around, look ahead to see if any obstacles lay in their path. Furthermore, I explained, that anyone who could not understand this concept, would not be able to understand anything that I would later pertain to. Sharon was in full agreement with this thought. It was at this point she wanted to "see" my vision. Again. our "good doctor" from Oxford could not grasp this, but desperately wanted to "see" this vision also. Kentar had left the conversation at this point. However, I think he was just shocked, after I revealed this point. He often thought that I'd, "be sigging along and then would suddenly zag."

So at this point, I've pretty much have shown my hand here. However, I could be very, very, wrong about this. I do believe we've been in decline now for almost 30 years, and I am assuming this. Staniford, does have a point when he questions us, "So why do you industrialize a society, is that process reversible? This is a very good question especially after using the example that we cannot repeat back much of what is already done....

It's quite likely, that Staniford doesn't believe that this society has declined at all and he's not alone. Neither do my instructors! These individuals are the darkest people, I've ever met in my life! And it will be their vision (our vision) of what life without power might be like, that I'll reveal. I'll explain why they don't think we've declined, in my next article.

The Ace of Spades Part III, The Olduvai Theory

2008-01-23T15:49:00.001-08:00

THE OLDUVAI THEORY and going back to the stone age.....

The above photo was taken almost twenty years ago, and shows one of my primitive tepee camps and my old hunting dog. I stayed at this camp for a month and a half before moving to another similar camp and stayed there another two months.

The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). Gee, that 1930 date is mighty close when electrical generation was coupled to machines of mass production, eh? This theory was first introduced by Richard Duncan PH. D. in 1989 (almost ten years after my formal education), and divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" encompasses most of human history when simple tools and weak machines (like the photo posted earlier), limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lifted all limits of growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to the point of equilibrium with nonrenewable resources and the natural environment.

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections: 1) The Olduvai slope (1979-1999), 2) The Olduvai slide (2000-2011), this marks escalating warfare in the Middle East and the peak of world oil production, 3) The Olduvai cliff (2012-2030), by 2012 an epidemic of permanent blackouts spread worldwide, first there will be waves of brown outs and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire. Finally culminating to a world population of 2 billion circa 2050.

A staunch supporter of this theory, Perry Arnett, (a frequent poster on Jay Hanson's "lists"), has a timetable of the following events: 2005, oil probably peaked, still on an undulating plateau in 2007, starts cliff 2010-2012 or before. 2012, U.S. electricity brownout and blackouts become the norm, or sooner. 2015, World die-off begins in earnest. 2030, U.S. per-capita energy consumption hits the "30% mark-After Peak" equaling a 1930's lifestyle (probably much sooner).

I only wished that one of the instructors lived long enough to see this! Would it have changed his apocalyptic view? Probably not, it hasn't changed the other instructors view of the future, either.......

The Ace of Spades Part II, Electricity

2008-01-23T10:24:00.000-08:00

ELECTRICITY

Some people claim that an image is worth a thousands words. Indeed. At first, I thought what a beautiful photo! Until, upon further inspection, I saw it captured the transmission lines..However, the more I looked at it, it too spoke a thousand words, like what a beautiful blue sky near the lines and how gloomier the sky was going away from them. Surely a sunset, marking the end of the day. Also the very dark forest beneath them.......

I'll never forget one day back at the old school house, the instructor had the classmates hold hands around a circle, as he cranked up an old WWII radio. Well, when the business ends were held at each end of the circle, we were all in for a shocking experience! The instructor was just grinning from ear to ear, as he delighted in continuing to crank! None of us could let go and the hair was starting to raise on our heads! Such began our study of electricity, and this particular instructor would not let go of this topic for the better part of two years. It wasn't so much about electricity itself but just how dependent our society was to it. When he did stop cranking and we were finally able to let go, he screamed, "This is how you will feel when the power goes down for good and before then you will not be able to let go!" This happened over 35 years ago and he was right about us not being able to let go of this kind of power, yet.

Actually, electricity is a vehicle that delivers the power that electrical generators convert from the real energy the powers them. That energy can be from coal, gas, nuclear, hydro, etc., that drives the generating plant. In other words, it takes power to make power. Electricity is then a byproduct of real energy that conveniently transforms that energy into a more usable form that products can use such as, PCs, TVs, and other appliances. You cannot run your TV on gasoline for example. Electricity powers a lot more than just appliances, it powers your vehicle also, by detonating the compressed gas in the cylinder by a electronic spark. It also delivers your water, power to pump your gas, produce and deliver the food you eat, and on and on. It's not only the power of fossil fuel that keeps you alive but the power through electricity that is derived from it. Furthermore, you cannot have one without the other....

The instructors thought, (and apparently almost everyone else), that if our modern society should collapse, that it would be the lack of electrical power that would characterize it. In fact, our human population didn't explode until fossil fuel was coupled with electrical generation, as discussed earlier. This is what actually defines our modern society or modern environment. Nothing has changed our world like this, not even the splitting of the atom. To put this into prospective, the gasoline combustible engine, the way your water and gasoline is pumped, the way your food is produced and delivered, the way your appliances and lights work are virtually the same as it was fifty years ago. That is, how many home and cars are nuclear powered?

Most people alive today can't remember a time without electrical power, in fact, most of us just take it for granted. Most people have no idea what life without power would be like. I like to play a little game with people, illustrating this fact. This is how the game is played, describe to me what you think you and you're family's life might be like during the first day without power. Be complete as you can by starting with waking up and end by going to bed. Almost like a diary of you're what doing, all day long. Include, what you think your neighbors are doing, if you want to. Make it as complete as you can and about the length of this article. Send it to me and I'll comment. The next step, the same thing but describe a diary like day of events on day two of a power outage, again I'll comment. Then describe the events of day three without power, I'll comment and so-on....I have done this many times and it usually does'nt last past day three. I will not make a fool of you! There where two people that were brave enough to do this on BNB, including the good doctor from Oxford. That was in front of hundreds of daily readers! Of course, this was a real eye opener not only for those involved but the entire crowd that was watching on! This event alone, perhaps indicated a level of play that my fellow players around the table could not match. This is when Kentar, almost stopped communicating with me entirely, at that point he left the conversation altogether. Sharon was just astonished, and our good doctor turned into Lord Rothschild.

This is one of my best ways to lift the veil, so to speak. Does anyone want to play?

The Ace of Spades Part I, Prelude

2008-01-23T07:54:00.000-08:00

Prelude

Now this story is about to get very interesting and perhaps frightening to some. As a young man, I developed this image in my mind or vision if you will, of the coming die-off of our society in this environment. I'm going to start to paint a picture of what the die-off might look like. By following each step in this process, you might at the end, be able to view the same picture as I. When I was finished describing this scenario over at BNB, perhaps only half of the people could envision this portrait. One of them that couldn't was a former professor from the Oxford University of England. This "elderly women", just could not grasp to what I was eluding to, even after others on the post and myself, was helping her all that we could. As much as she tried, she just couldn't "see it". It's to this personality, that I'm going to dedicate this "ace" to. I'll be actually throwing this ace towards the greatest mind who ever contemplated the die-off, in my opinion. As I said before, I have the utmost respect for this personality.

This segment, "Ace of Spades" will be a lengthy one, I'll be combining all the concepts discussed in this series and how they'll pertain in the lights are out for good scenario. Furthermore, I'll be discussing a scenario, as if all electrical generation from the interconnected grid should go down on the North American continent within days and weeks, not months and years. I'll be discussing if this is actually possible and the probability of this actually happening.

I cannot claim the originality of this piece, as there are many others who share almost the same vision, as I have. Of these people, are my instructors, some of my fellow classmates, and others who I've met along this trail, I call, "life". I'll be staying true to the wishes of those who have got me this far, and not discuss or speculate what life might be like after the die-off.

To those who are about to walk down this trail with me,"Good Luck!"

Jack of Spades, Food

2008-01-22T16:25:00.001-08:00

FOOD

I've just read of an account of some suburbanite, that the minute when the shit hits the fan, she's going to bug out and go live in the nearest National Forest,(again, this person thought this is when the power will go out for good). However, she's worried about leaving her animals behind. I almost felt like replying, that she had better take them with her, if she plans on eating something....but thought better of it. Why on earth would I want to waste my time?

I've spent a great deal of time in the woods and have actually subsisted entirely on a diet coming from there....at times,....for not very long......,and only where game, fish and wild edibles abound...,and by using modern weapons, snares, fish line, etc.... and having a vast knowledge in order to do so. Still with all the experience that I've obtained over the years and being in a land where deer out number the people, I'd have to say that my chances of being alive after one or two years, to be almost zero. I am certain of this, as I've been as close to this situation than anyone I've ever known. I've always lost a lot of weight attempting to live in the wild and even though I can harvest game and edibles, quickly and efficiently, this does take effort. In the long run, I can't help but think that this situation is a "sink", that is, expending more energy than what I'm getting out of it. Perhaps, if more skilled persons like myself grouped together this situation might change, however, anyone not able to pull their own weight, would be not only a reliability to themselves but could be detrimental to the entire group.

Like water, everyone must be able to eat to maintain their activity. The human body will do almost anything to stay alive, this includes some unimaginable things. Like the rats in the box, I don't think it would take much of a reduction of food in our society before our environment would change, especially when most of those rats can only think progressively. Again, one only has to look at Katrina or any other disaster to find people refusing to leave the situation or not believing it is happening at all or making the situation worse than it already is.

There's some people out there who think that the earth can support as much as two billion people, without the use of fossil fuels and this may be very well so. The population was raising during the agricultural era (1700's through the 1800's) as depicted on population charts, with plenty room for expansion. However, this can only be realized if this transition is slow enough for people to adapt to this new environment. Learning how to farm without the use of fossil fuels for example. It will also take time for some land to become fertile again after years of misuse.

Under the lights are suddenly out scenario, well, we just wouldn't have the time to adapt, certainly not for the 300 million living in this country. We just wouldn't have the power to plant, water, fertilize, harvest and transport crops. At this point, this new environment couldn't even support a fraction of the existing population and the die-off would begin. An example of this might be a wild fire burning through a hay field. It is reasonable to believe that the population would be much lower than it was during the agricultural era, as it'll be very likely we would not have the resources nor the knowledge that was afforded to sustain the population back then.

The Ten of Spades, Part II, The Assumption of Continuous Growth

2008-01-22T11:09:00.000-08:00

THE ASSUMPTION of CONTINUOUS GROWTH

Going back briefly to part I, one should come away with this thought, that once the modern industrial age began, so did the population explosion. More food was produced by three things that were not present in the age or environment before it. 1) Electrical generation, 2) mass production of uniform parts, 3) wide spread use of fossil fuels. The above photo shows a farm implement that was made before electrical generation.

For thousands of years, people could expect that their offspring would have a reasonable chance at a better lifestyle than they had. This was an reasonable assumption, that is until the industrial environment came to being. During this "run" our natural resources are being consumed at an unprecedented rate. As our population expands, so does the rate of consumption. Of course this consumption produces pollution even further destroying what resources are left. There could be a day when these resources are eventually gone, or spent, if you believe that resources such as oil is limited.

There's a concept that I'll borrow from Jay Hanson and share with you. Hanson's thoughts about why most people cannot come to terms with peak oil is that through out the thousands of years of progressing, people have become conditioned to think in those terms. That is, most people can only think "progressively" forward, they are incapable of imagining a tomorrow of decline, not there. They simply cannot "see" it. This isn't their fault, after thousands of years of conditioning, it's in the genetic make-up. Perhaps, an example of this might be sheep following one another over a cliff.

This thought of "ever progressing" is not only limited to people. Continuous growth is the basic assumption, driving our economy. Investment is made in hopes of future growth. Loans are made in hope of growth. Interest is only realized after growth. Without real growth, how can our financial system survive? Suppose, we're almost there? Could it be, that after this last expansion of growth this country has experienced from the housing market, employing perhaps a quarter of Americans, there's nothing more to grow?

The Ten of Spades Part I, The Industrial Environment

2008-01-22T05:48:00.000-08:00

THE INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENT

Ever hear of anyone calling it this? Most terms we hear are "industrial revolution", industrial society" and so-on. Well, let me assure you that nothing has had a more profound effect on the earth than this movement in thousands of years. Resource depletion, pollution, extinctions and global warming just to name a few. Maybe in that order?

Back over at BNB (Bullnotbull.com), there was some discussion on how our economy has evolved here in the U.S.. I can remember offering my version of it in order, hunter/gather, agricultural, industrial, service, finance and finally leading to now, the "knowledge economy". That each economy actually evolved from the one preceding it and would contribute to the development of the proceeding one, following it. An example of this might be: From the agricultural economy grew the labor needed to develop the industrial economy. From the industrial economy grew the products that would later grow the service economy to maintain the products and the lifestyle that economy afforded. Which in turn grew the financial economy as an attempt to continue the lifestyle afforded by the previous economy. At last, we're in the knowledge economy in an attempt to maintain the financial one. Notice, how we're actually going backwards to maintain the lifestyle the industrial/service economy afforded? This is another concept that is very hard to follow and or accept. If I were to speculate in the future, I would dare say we'll likely go full circle and evolve to another agricultural economy of some kind.

When did the industrial environment, or movement really begin in earnest when it started to have this profound effect on the land? I would dare say some where in the early 1900's, especially when machinery transformed the previous agricultural movement by replacing the energy that up to then was produced by men and livestock.

Back at the old school house, the instructors thought there were only two men who actually changed the world, benefiting mankind. They are often called the "fathers of the industrial society" and were the best of friends. They are Henry Ford and Thomas Edison, together these two men actually transformed the world, more than anyone else, in the history of mankind.

Henry Ford, often thought of the father of the automobile was much more than that. Actually, he is the father of modern assembly lines used in the mass production of uniform parts. Thomas Edison, often thought of the father of electricity, was actually one of the first inventors to apply the principles of mass production to the process of invention. Through electrical generation, this would provide the power needed to produce parts and products in mass quantity. Ford held a global vision, with consumerism as the key to peace. It was Ford, who thought that by coupling innovation and a higher wage for workers, would enable those workers to buy the products being made.

Together these men actually created the modern industrial society, and Michigan actually being the heart of it. It was here for decades, that through innovation, the lifestyle of the people living in the Mid-West was and continues to be, the envy of the world. However, that is just now beginning to change. As our economy has changed ever more to a global one, that industry is now being lost or imported to countries that have a cheaper work force. Since Michigan was the first to go on line in this industrial environment, it only stands to reason it would be the first to decline without it. That is where we are now. I have contended for years that Michigan still leads the economy, it's only the rest of the country that will eventually "catch up". That is, what we have experienced here in Michigan, the whole country will soon experience.

Even though Ford's dream was a noble one, it was doomed to fail from the start. Probably unknown to him or Edison, was that the earth's resources are limited, making consumerism unsustainable. It's very likely both men held a linear view of the future, that through new innovation the human race would ever progress. Also, I can't imagine that both men could foresee the "elephant in room", that was created during this movement.

King of Spades Part IV, Rats in a Box

2008-01-21T11:22:00.000-08:00

" RATS IN A BOX"

The next concept in this population dynamics series I'd like to relate came to me, while I was over at David Pollard's very interesting site, "How to Change the World". Pollard described the situation we're all in, as like rats in a very large box, that continued to populate as more and more food was introduced into the box. Indeed, any population will expand as long as there's food to support it. But what happens if this food was reduced by 10% or 50% suddenly? Maybe the rats could get by on the 10% reduction and their population would stabilize in adjustment. They would be adapting to the new environment inside the box. However, a sudden 50% reduction of food and it's quite likely we'd have a problem with this environment, as there would not be enough time to adapt to such a reduction. It's very likely the rats would become cannibalistic, mutate and or die-off. Perhaps, some could manage to get out of the box?!

Likening our population to those of the rats and the box as our society, it only stands to reason that one would better off to leave this society than likely go down with it, if there was a sudden crash. However, one would be taking his chances of adapting to the new environment outside the box or die trying to adapt. If one could, wouldn't it be wise to try to adapt to this new environment, before a crisis arises? Well, of course it would be! This is easier said than done, I can promise you that. For some, it's altogether impossible because they would not have the time to adjust to it and yet for others, they wouldn't be able to adapt even if they had the time to do so.
An example of this might be: Winter can be very hard on the deer herd here in Northern Michigan and annual "die-offs" are a normal occurance. During the summer months, of the deer that come to our yard we supplement their diet with corn, (these are deer who are getting outside the box as opposed the deer who are not getting the supplement, as those stuck in the box). When winter comes the entire herd, (representing the total population both those that diets were supplemented and those not), goes to yard in the swamp together (inside the box) where again corn will be supplemented to their diet to prevent starvation. Most the deer that were supplemented corn in their diet through the summer are more likely to survive because they could adapt and digest the corn. While many of the others who didn't have corn in the summer, died with corn in their stomachs, they couldn't digest it, or adapt to it.

This is not an easy concept to comprehend. One personality over at BNB had no problem following this concept, that was Whatmeworry. Whatmeworry, in my opinion, was by far the brightest person on the posts, however very radical. This "little old lady", who was living at some compound in the middle of the Arizona desert, ( I was gullible enough to believe this at the time), prided herself by having piles of whole and cracked corn. When I told her, I'd rather be sitting on a pile of Big Mac's and that at least I could digest this, she became very upset. Being a genius doesn't make you always right, doesn't enable you to digest corn in this matter and doesn't ensure that you'll be able to adapt or survive, period. I had insulted her intelligence and everyone would pay dearly for it! However, she did agree completely with this concept and even expressed sorrow for those who couldn't grasp or accept it. Again, we both viewed a very sudden collapse of society, that once die-off began in earnest, it'd have a life of it's own and there was no way of stopping it. Not only did we view the die-off as an event but a thing, a monster if you will. That the only chance of survival was to completely get out of the way of it.

Another person who didn't like where I was going with this was Kentar. I was suggesting that perhaps the only way out of this collapse was to leave civilization or anyplace you might find transmission lines, behind. As you might recall Kentar viewed collapse as coming ever so slowly, not a event but a series of declines. Kentar questioned that although this might be an option for someone with the experience that I have, it wouldn't realistically be an option for just about anyone else there on the board. Of course, I had to agree with this and even offered that someone of my experience couldn't last long or go very far, without the help of others. However, at this time Kentar, did agree that this might be the only approach,(leaving civilization behind), if the lights should go out for good suddenly, but thought this wasn't very likely.

Under the lights are out for good scenario, it's much better looking inside the box from the outside, than inside the box looking out!

The King of Spades Part III, Isolation

2008-01-20T09:32:00.000-08:00

ISOLATION

It wasn't long after discussing the dynamics of hare populations and how much of the same characteristics were displayed during the Black Plague in Europe, when Kentar provided a link to the Paul Chefurka site. This can be found at http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html . This is a popular model assuming zero population growth,(the best case scenario),and how the die-off could occur. Most readers over at BNB who were following the conversation, were just horrified! Kentar and I tried to lighten up the mood by joking in effect to obtain zero population growth, would be like asking people to quit having sex... Of course this isn't entirely true, as when deaths exceed births, that is zero population growth. When is that likely to occur? I don't really have an answer to that but, if I had to guess, within the next five years.

It was at this point in the conversation, that I began wondering if I wanted to continue describing what I thought might happen if the lights went out for good, scenario. Of course, the Paul Chefurka site irritated some people, and there were a lot of people who simply weren't posting much beyond this point. This conversation again, can be found in the archives of February and March. I suspect for most, they were too scared to join in the conversation that Sharon, yooper, Kentar and whatmeworry were having. That it was perhaps better to be,"quietly listening"......

Somehow, the conversation turned to thoughts of extinction. I had some definite thoughts about this, as most of the instructors back at the old school house shared this common view, that this "Modern Man" would eventually become extinct.

Perhaps, the most misunderstood aspect of the extinction process and of population dynamics in general, is the effect that isolation has upon it. This is what makes,"island studies" so interesting. Information gathered from such studies is fairly new, within the last fifty years. However, the effects of isolation determine almost all extinctions. I'll use the sharp-tailed grouse here in Michigan as an example to illustrate this concept. Before the massive deforestation of the Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota in the late 1800's and early 1900's they were no sharp-tailed grouse in the State. The Sharp-tailed grouse preferred habitat is the grasslands habitat that is found in the western part of the Nation, there it is indigenous and has been for perhaps thousands of years. Once this corridor of now open land and preferable habitat was created, the birds flourish and spread eastward into Michigan. Now, 100 years later these birds will likely become extinct within the next 50 years, according to the Michigan Department of Natural Resources. This diagnosis came after the realization that the birds have become isolated from the indigenous habitat out west. Therefore the distance between suitable habitats,(isolation) is too great for the birds to interact. Sharp-tailed grouse is now extinct in Wisconsin and the ones remaining in the last grassland habitat in Michigan are now trapped from the populations out west. Furthermore, even the distances where sharp-tails exist in Michigan, have become isolated from each other, due to forestation. Even if habitat could be maintained to support a number of birds, they'd likely die out eventually from effects due to interbreeding. So, if a species becomes isolated and cannot impregnate another suitable habitat, the extinction process begins, if that specie cannot adapt to the invading environment. Sharp-tailed grouse are an example of a specie that does not adapt well.

White-tailed deer on the other hand are quite adaptable. Back in the late 1980's, I was privileged enough to obtain a permit to hunt deer on North Manitou Island, Michigan. This is a hunt put on by the MDNR and what's called a primitive hunt, that is what you pack in, you must pack out.. North Manitou Island is 7 3/4 miles long by 4 1/4 miles wide and is located almost in the northern middle part of Lake Michigan. Back in 1926 four male and five female deer were introduced to the island in hopes they would multiply enough to a number large enough for hunting. By 1981, there were an estimated 2,000 deer on the island! The population is now controlled by the hunts, however, not until the deer on the island had mutated to half the size of the deer on the main land! If this population was permitted to go unchecked, I'm sure the deer herd would became extinct in some unimaginable way. This is supported by other island introductions of species, time and again.

The instructors view of isolation was a very unique one. They viewed modern man as a weaker specie from earlier ones, and the more that we strayed from a sustainable environment, the weaker man would become. Furthermore, man already in a physical state of decline could find the distance to a suitable habitat, too great to penetrate. The distance to suitable habitats would become greater, as those habitats grew smaller. When contemplating distance often time is involved. They thought that man already in a weakened state would not have enough resource to make the transition to another suitable habitat in time. If it took X amount of time and unlimited resource to get where we are today and for the population to build as it has, is it reasonable to expect the population to unfold in the same amount of time as resource depletes?

Demography

2008-01-20T06:37:00.000-08:00

demography: the science which aims to apply the knowledge gained from vital and social statistics. toward the development of mankind.

source: The Winston Dictionary, Advanced Addition, 1946.

This is an interesting graph, that I stumbled by. Notice, how world population tripled in the last 100 years. However, the industrialized regions only doubled, during this time, and is projected to level off during the next 50 years. Of course, this is only an assumption, not fact, as we're not there yet.

Some European countries populations are in fact in decline and Japan's population is expected to decline. Through better nutrition, education and medicine in the last 100 years, has enabled the population to grow older. Of course this drives down the rate of fertility. Just as infant mortality drives down the medium age within a population. This presents quite the challenge for certain countries to support this aging population in coming years.

Back at the old school house, the instructors insisted that any given land and it's natural resources can only support X amount of people in the long term. Their favorite example was here, the U.P. of Michigan. The population has virtually went unchanged in the last 100 years,(1900's), in this industrial/agricultural environment. The environment of the 1800's was much different and only supported a fraction of the present population. It was the power of fossil fuels in the 1900's that transformed the environment on this land. Within this time span, the economy has changed from timber harvest, to agricultural, (which was a failed experiment by the Federal Government), to tourism. Now, the forest somewhat resembles the forest that was found in the early 1900's. Also during this time, the population aged, in a two fold way, of those that stayed here are getting older and of those that had to move to support families have been replaced by people who are retiring here. This has drove down the fertility rate to the point the school system has been halved in student population since I went to school! So the population peaked in the early 1900's and has managed to stay consistent, riding a plateau for the last 100 years. This would suggest that the population level is at the maximum point, the land can support in this environment that depends on fossil fuels.

Back to the graph, most of the population expansion has come from developing regions, they are just now coming on line of being able to support larger populations. Again, through the use of fossil fuels is this only made possible. The population's medium age is much younger than that of industrialized regions, naturally making the fertility rates much higher. Most of these regions are 100 years behind those regions that were industrialized 100 years ago! To even further exasperate the problem is wealth is not more evenly distributed as it had been for earlier industrialized regions, making these people uneducated and poorer. Of course, this also inflates the fertility rate.

I have some very dire forecasts for many of these developing regions with higher populations, in coming articles.

The King of Spades Part II, Population Dynamics

2008-01-19T11:20:00.001-08:00

Population Dynamics

There are those who insist that all life forms follow a distinctive bell shape pattern as the population builds, peaks, descends. Nothing could be further from the truth! Or actual scientific fact. I have been studying population cycles of snowshoe hare and ruffed grouse, almost my entire life. I've thousands of hours of research and practical study of these two species. For the most part research has stopped for these two species long ago. There are only so many times one can add two and two and come up with four, again, again and yet again. Time and again, research has only come up with what was already known.

What's so intriguing about these two species? Well their population cycles display a certain pattern described as "cyclic", that is there is a predictable amount of time between cycles and this has likely occurred for thousands of years. Scientists are no further today than when they started as to explaining why these cycles occur. Some have come to the conclusion, including myself, that this phenomena is "divine" in nature.... Furthermore, even when conditions are manipulated, such as improved habitat, lower predation and even lowering the population itself, this has no apparent effect on the timing of the cycle itself. Perhaps, this is nature's way of keeping balance and insuring survival of the species?

Last year, while explaining this to the readers at BNB and being sensitive to them, I left out the part of manipulation having no effect upon the cycle itself. Of course, using this information supported my case that a die-off could occur within a very short time span, under the lights are out for good, scenario. Beyond a shadow of a doubt, this presented that crashes in population or die-offs have occurred naturally, here on this earth. Some people on this post had to be convinced of this fact...

One personality on this post needed little convincing that hares could "drop dead" overnight. His name was Kentar, and he held a long decline view, describing that it may take centuries for our population to unwind. Kentar recalled during his childhood out west somewhere, that hares would continue to populate until their preferred food source was exhausted. Once this happened, he recalled going out picking up the dead bodies and burning them in a pile. I was somewhat shocked that he'd offer this support as it seemed we were always at the opposite ends of the spectrum. However, I greatly admired his prospective, sound logic in supporting his position and the overall comforting nature about him. Kentar used alot of historical information in supporting his stance. My view of the human population had been of a linear one, forever rising from the stone age on, this is supported by any graph that depicts human history. Kentar on the other hand argued that humanity's population was a cyclical one. I contended that this sudden spike in human population that occurred in the last one hundred years had never happened before. While Kentar maintained it indeed happened before and that it would likely happen again. At the time, even now, I'm open to this idea that our population could fall to even a near extinction level and come back. This in fact has happened at other times in prehistoric times. We both agreed that the next cycle would likely be of a lessor population, since there would not be enough resources left to enable a population to grow at this level. I was finding myself agreeing with almost all of what Kentar was trying to convey. Surely, this man was educated much the same way I was, why was he so sure this would be a "long emergency"?

The King of Spades, Part I, Population Dynamics

2008-01-18T12:13:00.001-08:00

Population Dynamics

Many people believe that our human population will be reduced by the scarcity of oil and other resources that our society has come to depend on. That this reduction will actually correspond much like it had exploded when the rate of resources consumed, soared. Put another way, as our resources deplete, so will the population in comparison to it. Or yet another way, our population will decline at the same rate of depletion. Many contend that following the population trend that has increased in the last 100 years will decrease in much the same matter and time, in the next 100 years. Much like those "bell graphs" or "Hubbert's curve", everyone is used to seeing on sites such as LATOC, Die-off, The Oil Drum, etc.. Most show how the human population has followed the rate at which oil has been consumed and now many contend we're at the peak or around there somewhere.

It would be an assumption on our part to project anything in the future. We're simply not there yet! Facts can be only found in the past. It would be a pretense on our part to project that the population dynamics would follow a similiar pattern on the back side of the curve as opposed to the front side. Perhaps, we're on some kind of plateau as of now, and our energy demand is barely being met to support the present population. Once demand surpasses energy production, would it be reasonable to start to see decline in population? No. The momentum of the population expansion will "carry over" or "overshoot", the actual resource base that can sustain it. Overshoot occurs when a population exceeds the long term carrying capacity of its environment. The consequence of overshoot is called a "crash" or die-off". There are some who contend that overshoot, likely started in the late 1970's and some estimates are suggesting that we're over 25% past carrying capacity now. To my knowledge, world population continues to grow, however at a slower rate than the recent past.

My point here, is that no one knows for sure how our population will descend, but a some point it will, once resources cannot support the existing population in this environment. Since no one can accurately predict how consumption of energy and other resources will play out in the future, it's impossible to predict how populations around the world will react, with any certainly.

Descent, Controlled or Chaotic?

2008-01-16T11:55:00.000-08:00

If you believe that our society will see some kind of descent, do you think it'll be controlled or chaotic (natural), or somewhere in between? Perhaps, it'll be both at the same time? There's a very good future scenario, now being described by the,"Old Horseman" over at LATOC (Life After the Oil Crash), suggesting a contolled descent. This can be found by going to discussion, then under the "best of forum" category. It's also a version of a commonly held belief also dating back fifty or so years. Basically speaking, this vision of the future usually assumes TBTB, (the powers that be), or the elite will control descent by concentrating people into cities and establishing a new sustainable way of life there. That is the controlled aspect of this approach and almost all those holding this belief think it will come, when electrical power is shut down in out lying areas. People are thought to come to these cities willingly after being deprived of power, food, medical attention, etc.. Those who are unwilling to conform to this approach will be left on the outside to fend for themselves, probably in a chaotic matter.

The Old Horseman's story is a must read for anyone interested in what our near future may hold. I won't bother repeating here, after all, it's only a few clicks away. His story or vision, is very much like the one described by, "Lord Rothschild" over at BNB. However, even though the structure is much alike, Rothschild went much, much deeper than the Horseman about how this would come about.... Rothschild, was forever insisting that it would be the elite who manage resource depletion in a matter that pleased them. Rothschild's view came in the form of people willing to take an implant chip to the brain. In doing so these people's behavior would be then modified to suit the ruling elite and in exchange for this service, credits would be assigned, enough to keep one "satisfied", within the system. Like the Horseman's thought, those on the outside would just have to fend for themselves... Rothschild also believed that by the continued use of "chem-trails", this would soften people's minds into eventually making the elite's dream come true. I don't know much about these things like brain chips or chem-trails, however, I do respect this personality immensely and will devote a lenghty article paying tribute to this personality.

I suppose, my own thoughts about descent are that we have been in a real decline for awhile, probably since man landed on the moon. I do believe in TPTB or the elite, however, I think, it's just now they have lost control they did have. It's possible they cannot mask this any longer. The model of continuous growth has run it's course. The world wide housing, credit, and consumption bubbles are evidence of just that. A catabolic collapse? Quite possibly. It would be in their interest to settle this quickly, while a certain amount of resources are still to be had, if they have the power to do so. I'm much more inclined to think, that the world is much too big for anyone or group of people to control. Perhaps the unfolding of this society will come naturally, almost having a "will" of it's own and there's little anyone can do about it. Certainly, one of the negative feedback loops of our industrial society has brought about is climate change. As our resources deplete any thoughts of building another world, are just slipping away. All waves eventually crest before they come crashing down........

The Queen of Spades, Water

2008-01-13T13:54:00.000-08:00

WATER

It was New Years Eve 2005, when I came across a futuristic scenario written by Carolyn Baker, over at a site that was called, "Adaptation". I can't remember the title of this article, but I suppose after reading it, I knew in my heart that after 35 years of silence, I just had to bring something forth. I had been formally educated and groomed, to criticize such scenarios with historical and scientific fact.

The story went something like this: It related the life of a middle aged couple living in some suburb of Detroit, Michigan, through a diary the wife was keeping. It started out explaining how the young couple through good jobs worked their way up the ladder and into a nice neighborhood where they could raise their children. The husband had a good job at an auto manufacturer and they afforded the good life until he lost his job there. By that time the kids were out of school and pretty much on their own. The wife returned to work to try to make up the difference, but their lifestyle continued to decline. Their neighbors were no better off and soon shortages of food, gas and other items needed for daily living were becoming more common place. Even communication between the couple and their children became spotty, as lines were apparently not in order and the Internet was off and on. Soon, all communication was broken off from their siblings. Also during this time the power was going on and off and the duration of outages was lasting longer and longer. Finally, the couple decided to flee the neighborhood after the power went out for good and roaming gangs of young people were taking what they wanted. Total chaos had taken to the streets and had spread from the inner city to the out lying neighborhoods. Along the way in their flight on foot from the suburbs out towards the countryside, the couple was fortunate to get A GLASS OF WATER A DAY. It wasn't long into the journey that the husband finally perished from a lack of his medication. The women continued on until she happened onto a farm that was willing to take her on. End of story.

Now normally, I'm the type of guy that would set something like this aside. However, this story came from a professional writer with a PH.D, no less! I was outraged! How could someone of her stature drop the ball, so to speak, so profoundly. I decided to email her at once and a spirited email exchange ensued on New Year's Day of 2006, during the Rose Parade. I really didn't have a problem with the story until the power went completely out and yet that fleeing couple on foot managed to even find a glass of water a day! Let alone continue on in this matter! Apparently, no one had ever brought this to her attention. It wasn't long before I suspect she had pulled the article altogether, I can't find it anywhere. It was then, I realized I had made a mistake bringing this folly to her attention. Now, I couldn't use this article in supporting my case. One thing that story did for me, was it deepened my resolve to come forth with my own version of what might happen in the near future. That is, the future up to the die-off, beyond that I was never to have a hypothesis. Back at the old school house, the instructors were quite adamant about theorizing beyond die-off, as they thought there was no point in it.

What the instructors did make a point of are those elements needed for survival, and water was one of them. All life forms on this earth depend on water. The human body is composed of about 70% of water. While the body can survive without food for about five weeks, the body cannot survive without water for longer than five days. On the average, our bodies need at least eight glasses of water a day. A regular glass of water contains about eight ounces. Put another way, our bodies need a half ounce of water for every pound of weight, unless we're very active, in which case we'll need to increase the intake to two-thirds an ounce of water per pound of body weight, daily.

Another aspect of Baker's thought about the couple only getting a glass of water a day, where would that water come from? The story was told that the power had went out for good. I can't remember if this was nation wide, I'm assuming it was, however even if the power was out regionally, say like what happened in August of 2003 when the Northeast Blackout occurred, "city water " would likely stop running after a week. This critical part of our infrastructure, is designed, built and managed on the assumption of contineous power. Of course, most water treatment plants have diesel back ups to keep the water flowing, however, this is just a temporary fix until the power would come back on. Most of these diesel back ups cannot do the work as their electrical counterparts. Most have about a week's worth of fuel stored for just an emergency, but what happens after a week? It's just not feasible that all of the thousands of back ups would be refueled in such a scenario...How? Here's something to think about, how would New York city water over eight million residents without power?

Imagine for a moment, four million people of the Detroit Metropolitan area fleeing out to the countryside looking for a drink of water.....In this scenario, when the power is out, that can only be the case, people will have to go where there is water period, or die. So simple. Don't believe it? Just how many hand pumps do you actually see in the city? Even if there were hand pumps, where are the wells to draw from? Would the water table be at 25 feet or higher in order to use common hand pumps? About the only water these people would have at their disposal would be surface water from ponds, lakes, rivers and such. Much of this surface water is polluted, not fit for human consumption. Sure, this water can be chemically treated but how many people do you know have these tablets? Of course, one could always boil water..... Now we've got real problems, some serious feedback loops are beginning to arise. We have a lot of people sick drinking contaminated water and people who are not accustomed to making fire, suddenly doing so. Could you imagine what the people in the cities of Las Vegas or Tuscon would do if this should happen to them? Could they even walk to water in time? Um, reader, what's your situation with water? Better figure this out...

The class held the topic of water for what seemed like weeks, this I can remember quite well, even after 35 some years. Finally at the end of this discussion, as the instructor made for the door, he said in a low voice, "You all were born from water, without it you shall surely die..." He quietly closed the door behind him and I can still hear him whistling, "Dixie" as he made his way down the hallway..............

The Royal Flush in Spades, Part I, Introduction

2008-01-13T08:01:00.000-08:00

Introduction

It was during the winter of 2006, when I began to prepare the people who were posting over at BNB, (Bullnotbull.com) to hear this message. Most of the people on this board were Wall Street traders, investors, gold bugs and people who had a "bearish" view. I had been following Michael Nystrom's book reviews and the comments being posted for about a year. At the time, this was a large site and comments would range in the hundreds, after each article. Of course, speculation dominated the conversation over there. The people over there were very well read, educated, a very articulate bunch of people! I was just heart broken when the board finally went down mid-April. I had "lost" a lot of good friends that I truly cared about.

Peak Oil, was not a new topic of discussion for these people and it was often apparent this was on their mind when speculating into the future. People often discussed the thoughts of James Kunstler, The Archdruid, Carolyn Baker and the like. However, when it was revealed, that I would describe a die-off having run it's course in a couple of years, did people ever take notice! Furthermore, I predicted that a quarter of world wide population could expire within a month. One half by the end of three months, three quarters by the end of six months, to finally settle at 300,000,000 within one or two years. This prediction is not an uncommon one and is probably one of the oldest going back fifty years or so, regarding the die-off.

It's one thing to talk about Peak Oil, yet another to talk about die-off. Not many people are willing to listen to arguements supporting Peak Oil, any mention of "die-off" and you've lost your audience altogether. This is why many writers refuse to refer to it, it would be shear suicidal to their career if they did so. I would attempt to break this mold, in being forceful to this group of people when discussing this matter. Although this was a "turn-off" to many on the posts, as one reader put it, "why am I preparing, if such a scenario couldn't happen?" Another reader who I suspect is a very well respected Peak Oil commentator asked, "Why must I tell him that he is going to die?" Indeed.....

Of course, this conversation drew many of the Peak Oil writers to the board, as well as many others who have been predicting dire forecasts of the future. If one were to investigate this matter by going through the achieves in the months of February and March, 2007, one can only speculate who "Kentar", "Sharon", "Rich" and "Whatmeworry", are, however, every writer does have their signature. I likened this conversation as players sitting around a high stakes game of poker with the whole casino watching on. The discussion board changed to a new format, accommodating for the "game". Being more comfortable in this new arrangement, the players began to reveal their "hands". This is where I supported my case of such a scenario in five parts, points or concepts in cards.

This new format did'nt last long, perhaps a month. As convenient and subdivided in category the new board was, it was susceptible to spam, eventually to fall victim to a hacker.

In the weeks ahead, I'll turn over one card at a time and explain what it might mean in the future. I'll also discuss for the first time how the others were playing their hands. So not only will you be getting a version of the future from me, but from three others, as they envisioned it.

Naturally, this converstation is not for the timid. The reader will have to be as bold to read it, as I am to write it. Hope you can join in!

Collapse or Decline? Or Just Another Day?

2008-01-11T13:57:00.000-08:00

collapse: 1.) to fall in or together; cave in suddenly; shrink together abruptly. 2.) to fail utterly

and suddenly.

decline: 1.) to bend downward; droop. 2.) to draw to a close; fail; decay; disintegrate.

The Winston Dictionary, Advanced Edition, 1946.

If I should ask you how you think our society might end, how would you reply? Collapse or decline? Maybe a combination of both? I've been asking this question to people for a very long time, over 25 years as a matter of fact. Perhaps, you think our civilization will last forever. Whatever "camp" you may be hanging out in, this question is pretty hypothetical and there's a message here for everyone.

As you might expect, I've received a variety of answers over the years. Some reply, oh you mean, w.t.s.h.t.f., (when the shit hits the fan)? Or the ever popular, t.e.o.t.w.a.w.k.i., (the end of the world as we know it). One thing these people have in common, is they see this as an event. Civilization or society would likely end suddenly, in a matter of days, months or years. This best describes, "collapse".

Then there are people who believe we've been declining for awhile now or soon will begin to decline. For the most part, these people believe our society will decline a little bit at a time, something like going down a staircase. There's also people who think as we descend, we'll see periods of recovery only to eventually take another step down. Eventually it would take, 50 years, 100 years, 200 years or even longer when civilization as we know it, might have had it's run. This best describes, "decline".

Of course, there are those people who believe our descent, will come from a combination of decline that leads to collapse. For what it's worth, I'm probably part of this group of people. I envision many parts of society declining to the point it will eventually collapse. There may be periods of recovery or some sort of stabilization, but declines will mount bringing yet another collapse. Series of collapses until our society changes enough to become sustainable.

Quite naturally, there are a lot of people who think, things will go on as usual. For the most part they see society as ever improving, since the "stone age". Technology through innovation, will keep our society ever advancing.

Since I'm on the topic of asking hypothetical questions, I'll ask one more. If you could describe one thing that we'd be without in such a descending scenario, what would it be? This is were it gets interesting... All of the above groups of people have a common answer, they would envision the power being out...... What do we make of that? Seems most people can agree on that!

Over at BNB (Bullnotbull.com), I likened our society to fall like a house of cards and that through the loss of electrical generation would bring about collapse. My friend Kentar, held another view, he likened our society to slowly decline as an old house might eventually cave in. That even though the interior walls collapsed, still this left the attic and possibly the basement still intact and might actually be livable. Furthermore, he believed that our society would eventually build in population again and has actually done this before in human history! How interesting! I had never in my life heard such a claim! Even though I was going to present a case of 95% reduction in the human population, this is hardy what you would call extinction level with remaining 5% left alive. I thought it was possible that there would be other civilizations that would evolve using what resources were left from this one and that perhaps this might happen again in the far future.

In the coming weeks ahead, we'll explore of what life might be like without power......

Little Sisters, part III

2008-01-06T11:56:00.000-08:00

During the next seven weeks that followed at the camp, it almost became routine to hear the little sisters singing and chanting, always happy. From time to time, I'd take a short break from picking, stretching my back, hoping to see them but no such luck. I'd even begin to feel their presence before their singing would begin. I was growing very comfortable around them and looked forward to their visits. Not on that, but I sensed they were getting more comfortable with me, the singing sometimes sounded very near. Never did we have a conversation, as much as I tried. Their only response was giggling and laughter.

The weeks there at the end of November were miserable ones. The weekly take of cranberries was ever smaller. The Frenchman had gotten ill so I wouldn't be questioning him any further. The water in the lake had risen, flooding the bog which was good as it kept the berries from freezing. However, day after day of rain and snow, took it's toll on me, spending a lot of time in the tepee. I could feel the girls presence just outside the tepee at times, before it was always down at the bog. Not a peep out of them while they were there, which was strange.

It had rained and snowed so much that the ground inside the tepee became wet. Instead of moving the tepee which would have been too much work at that point, I cribbed the floor with lengths of saplings. This put my sleeping bag and supplies above the wet soaked ground, even the dog was happy with this arrangement!

Finally the rain and snow gave way to a cold snap. I awoke one morning to find the bog covered in ice! By busting the thin ice with my feet I could still get to the protected berries emerged in the water. Soon after picking about a bushel the sun came out and the girls started to sing once again. Now and then, I would look up to check on the dog who was now content on laying on the ridge. I heard a "yip" from the dog and looked up to my astonishment to see what seemed like the dog playing with the girls! I could not see the girls , but here was the dog carrying on between the two! What a sight to see!!!

The following morning was very bright, the sun filling the whole sky but very cold. I ran up the ridge to find ice now thirty feet from the shoreline! Time to break camp!

The sun was setting behind the pines when I shoved off the shore in the canoe with the last load of supplies. I hadn't heard from the girls the entire day. Suppose they were mad that I was leaving, we'd become so close. At the time I couldn't comprehend how much I'd miss my friends in the months, years to come. Surely, without them, I would have packed it up long before then. Tears welled up in my eyes as the well worn trail faded away from vision. What the little sisters did give me that day I left, was their story to share with you.....

Little Sisters part II

2008-01-06T05:32:00.001-08:00

Before we get back to the story, I'd like to let readers know this happened twenty years ago. I've been relating this story mostly to good friends while gathering around campfires. People have begged me to take them to this destination over the years but as you'll find out not everybody can go there....... Most men only read or dream about some of the experiences I had, I've actually lived it. There is a difference............. Back to the story..

The following year after discovering the new bog, I decided to really make a go of it there. This would mean setting up camp, staying there Monday through Friday and returning home on the weekends with the berries that were harvested.

A friend of mine and I erected a large tepee, conveniently located at the dug out section of the ridge, this would help break the wind coming from the lake. Enough fire wood was cut for cooking and warmth for about a month. There was no uneasy feeling this time as we sat camp and no "voices" either. After being quite satisfied with the camp and the amount of cranberries in the bog, we left without a hitch.

The following Monday found me paddling the canoe loaded with a week's worth of supplies and my Labrador retriever, that I brought along for company. Upon reaching the other side, the same occurrence happened that had happened the year before, a very upsetting feeling just overcame me. After pulling the canoe up on dry land and sitting on it, I tried to gather my thoughts. What in the hell was I doing out there? Everything in my being told me to go back! Never, in my life had I experienced such feelings! Was I loosing my mind?

After about an hour of just sitting there, trying to pull myself together, I reasoned that it must be the effects of being so isolated. This has happened to me before, especially when going so far back but, never like this! I gathered my supplies, put them in the plastic sled and managed down the trail. The dog on the other hand was just as pleased as she could be, being in the woods.

Some very ugly thoughts entered my mind while making our way to the tepee, I was somewhat relieved having got there. I could tell the dog really wanted to go hunting, prancing about. Thinking better of it though, I didn't want to have a loaded gun in my hands at the moment. That was how poorly I was feeling! We went berry picking instead, hoping this would keep my mind occupied to things at hand.

By the time it was getting dark, a nice fire was going inside the tepee and we had a good meal over it. I began to feel much better, perhaps it was just getting used to the situation there? Having camped like this many times before, the nagging question was, why was I feeling like this here, now? Hopefully, I'd get over it, there was a lot of cranberries to be had and it would be a shame to have set this camp up for nothing!

It was a beautiful sun shining morning and I had slept well. Today was a new day and I was feeling so much better, much more like myself! After breakfast we went eagerly down to the bog. The dog was quite content lying next to me as I gathered, as she's done hundred's of time before. The floating bog was dry now on top as the lake level hadn't risen yet. By about mid afternoon my back was killing me and that dog sure wanted to go hunting!

The day had been a productive one, perhaps five bushels and I was really beginning to settle in. Wanting to get a good look of the lay of the land anyway, a little hunting would be a refreshing break from the work. It didn't take long to check this out as this stretch of land was very small and completely surrounded by water or formidable swamp. We did come by a hugh fallen white pine that was hollowed out over time. At the base it had to been six foot in diameter or better, by far the largest, I'd ever seen. We did manage to get a partridge and cooked it over the fire that night.

The second day was as beautiful as the day before and by mid-afternoon, saw us hunting once again. This time we followed the woods along the edge of the swamp and came across the trail leading to the canoe. Since we were close, I thought we'd go check on it. Along the way, I just about jumped out of my britches when I spotted someone walking down the trail! It was the old Frenchman!

After exchanging pleasantries, I asked him what the hell was he doing here? This man was in his seventies, one tough old bugger, I thought. He said that he heard that I was up here and wanted to come check on me. I thanked him and asked how he got there? "Well, I have a row boat and come here from time to time." I offered to show him the camp but he refused saying he'd better get back.

After we parted company, I thought it strange that he'd come all that way and not see the camp.

These camps I've made draw quite a bit of interest from curious people! Funny it didn't seem to matter to him at all. Heading down the trail, I kept wondering why there was even a trail in this God forsaken place, in the first place?

On the third day while on the bog, I heard the voices again. It was the same singing as before, little chants that young girls have. The dog awaken from her sleep and was as startled as I was! She looked at me as in disbelief before she tore up the ridge and down the trail. I kept picking but soon stopped as the voices did seem just down the trail. Since the dog was still gone, I decided to investigate the matter. As soon as I reached the ridge the singing stopped. Meeting the dog half way down the trail, by her panting I could tell she had gone all the way to the end where the canoe was. After reaching the canoe and finding everything as I left it and finding absolutely no sign of anybody being there, we headed back to camp.

Again I wondered, why was this trail so worn? Surely, one could count on one hand, how many people would dare come here and for what? The hunting here was very poor, the fishing was also said to be very poor in both lakes. The site where my truck was parked. was also very discouraging to people coming here, as a large mound was bulldozed to prevent people from driving to the first little lake. I'd even bet, in the last fifty years not ten different people had ventured down this trail. I only knew of four other people that had been here and I've lived near here all my life. That is how remote and formidable this land was!

The chants were becoming much more frequent and seemed just over the ridge while gathering on the bog. By now, I was getting used to it, so was the dog as she quit high tailing it down the trail only to come up empty each time.

On the day I was due back, the berries were dumped into garbage sacks and loaded onto to the sled. After making a few trips back and forth to the canoe, I was ready to tie all the bags together and float them behind the canoe. Paddling away, I turned to look back almost half expecting to seeing the girls wave us off, but no such luck. The dog looked long and hard too, thinking we were leaving someone behind...

On the way back, I decided to stop to see the old Frenchman and show him the harvest. As he stared at all the bags, he recalled a time during the Great Depression, when a family lived back there and brought cranberries to him to resale in town. A father and two young daughters actually lived there in some sort of shack. He said he could barely remember much of this but could well remember one time, as he brought back shoes for the young girls after selling their berries in town.

After letting him know that the tepee sat in a dug out area on the ridge, he figured this is probably the same place where their shack once stood. I asked him what was a family living so far back for? He didn't seem to know. Then I asked, what did this father do to earn a living besides harvesting cranberries in the fall? Again, the old man couldn't remember. The Frenchman was becoming annoyed at such questioning, so I quickly mentioned the fact that the trail seemed well worn, that there must be a certain amount of traffic on it. He said, the trail always seemed the same to him and doubted very much if anyone besides him and I have been back there in the last thirty years. It had been a good idea to hold back telling anything about the girls to the Frenchman. Something wasn't quite right with his story......

Little Sisters, part I.

2008-01-05T08:37:00.000-08:00

Living in Michigan's Upper Peninsula has never been easy for anyone and my life here has not been the exception. As a young man, I found myself struggling to make a living, as did the previous three generations of family, before me. Like some of them, I began to supplement the family income by harvesting wild cranberries.

Gathering cranberries is back breaking work! Usually done on swampy ground, wearing waders, staying dry and not becoming wet, is an absolute must. By using a "picker", a wooden box with small forks to rake the berries into, is the quickest method of harvesting by hand.

After harvesting all the areas close to home, I was soon looking for another place to pick. Rumors had circulated of cranberries being located along a certain shoreline of a very large inland lake. This place would be extremely difficult to get to, no less than eight miles from the paved road and civilization with no houses or camps in between. The route I would take would take me through the woods down a two tracked road for five miles. From there, a canoe would have to be dragged along a path another mile to a small lake. The trip across the small lake would be a mile, upon reaching the shore on the other side, a path another mile long would lead to the larger lake and supposedly the cranberry patch.

An older Frenchman living on the paved road about nine miles from the site, was reported as having been there. Perhaps by talking to this man would be a good idea, considering the amount of effort it would take to even get there. Although this gentleman admitted there was lots of berries to be had, he was very apprehensive about me going there. Apparently, the berries were on a floating bog, that is, a thin layer of earth growing on top of water. A very dangerous situation as over the years many men, horses and oxen have fallen through, never to be seen again. Floating bogs were nothing knew to me, testing the strength of the soil could be done by holding a length of pole in case if I should fall through. Watching the ground literally wave with every step is really something to experience! Walking on water? Almost.....

Even after reassuring the Frenchman, that I wasn't going to attempt this adventure on my own, that help would be needed dragging the canoe anyway, he still was not satisfied. This man did not want me going out there and his demeanor worsened as his attempts of discouraging me not to go there fell on deaf ears. I thanked him for the information he did give me and upon leaving wondered, what was it, with this man?

It was a cold October day with the sky overcast as a hefty teenage boy and I pulled the canoe toward the little lake. This was no easy task, having to stop often to catch our breath. It was with great delight when ahead of us was a break in the tree line that could only be the lake! As we settled down into the canoe a thought ran through my mind that never occurred to me before, could I save this kid if the canoe should happen to tip? Even though we had life jackets on, the water was very cold.

My relief upon making it to the other side without a hitch was soon abated. The second my boots touched the shore, a very uneasy feeling overcame me, enough to really upset my stomach. Could I be having a heart attack? Even though pulling the canoe had been very strenuous, I was in my late twenties and 200 pounds, in the prime of my life, no way! Making matters in worse, the young man was becoming hysterical. Whatever it was he was feeling it too. He wanted to turn around and go back, now!

It took quite awhile to calm him down and a lot of reassurance that everything would be OK. Explaining that our destination was only a little further up the trail, he finally agreed to go on. By having the kid pull the plastic snow toboggan, with the cranberry pickers in it, seemed to keep his mind on task. As he pulled the sled down the trail, it would often tip over, spilling the contents that would have to be reloaded again and again.

My mind raced, what was this feeling that overcame me? It was almost like realizing you're lost only magnified several times over. Having been raised in the north woods and living in the forest almost my entire life, being in strange situations was nothing new to me either. I've been lost before, and once even had to spend the night one cold winter's evening alone in the bush. Never had I experienced this feeling before! Something was definitely amiss!

At last the trail came to an end at the foot of a ridge that masked what laid beyond a vast opening in the forest. As we crested the ridge, there was the lake, it was so large we couldn't see land on the other end of it. Finding the berries was easy, there they were right below us, a crimson sea of cranberries were floating on the water. This was by far the very best patch of berries, I had ever seen before!

Making a pole from a sapling was found nearby to test the floating bog. After stumbling around and almost falling down a couple times it seemed safe enough, especially with a foot or so of water on top of it, seemed to stabilize it. This also made the floating berries easy to pick. Soon both of us were picking and filling the plastic toboggan, that floated nicely along.

The feeling I had earlier subsided somewhat, but I knew something was amiss and wanted to fill up quickly and get the hell out of there. About an hour went by when I thought I heard something and I ordered the boy to stop picking. Sure enough, off in the distance I could hear what sounded like girls singing, like they do while jumping rope. After some pauses, the singing seemed like it was getting closer. This really scared the kid and I quickly dismissed this as sound can travel long distances over water, swamp and such. The boy said that a family lived just down the road from the Frenchman, had two young girls. That must be them, I reassured him and the picking resumed, knowing full well, that was over nine miles away! I've heard dogs barking that was over two miles away, when the wind was just right, but.......

After dumping the berries into plastic garbage bag sacks and loading them on the sled, we headed back down the trail. It would be dark soon and I was for damn sure not to get caught by darkness out there! Looking back as we were leaving to get a good look at the lay of the land, to my surprise there was a dug out section on the ridge! What was it, some kind of foundation?

We ditched the canoe on high ground once we reached the other side of the smaller lake. Sure didn't have to worry about someone swiping it, in that God forsaken place! Sledding the berries back to the truck didn't seem like a chore at all, and we both almost leap up and down for joy seeing the familiarity of the truck!!

On the way back through the woods to the paved road, the boy assured me, that was it for him, he'd never go back there again, no matter how much he was paid. I couldn't blame him, never in my life was I so happy to be leaving such a place! Stopping by the old Frenchman's place on the way back, I gave him a bushel of the berries. He seemed very pleased to get them, but was even more pleased and relieved when it was let on, that I wasn't going back that year....

more later.....