"Arc of Progress" Part III

Back to the "hood". Do you think that this library once held, the two volumes of "Decline of the West"? I'll bet it did....





I'm going to borrow the phase, "Arc of Progress" from my pal Nudge, and run off with it! I've been thinking about what I'm about to describe for about a year now. While I was on the search looking for examples of catabolic collapse (and there were many) on graphics, a strange thought occurred to me. Could the dynamics of decline that catabolic collapse is suggesting on the backside (right side) of say, Hubbert's curve, be somewhat of a reversal (or the opposite of) of the dynamics of the incline on the front side or left side of the curve? If we can describe the catabolic collapse process as decline, then partial recovery to be followed by even deeper decline, followed by yet another partial recovery not as great as the one preceding it to be followed by even deeper decline yet, etc., suggesting a downward arc.





Then can we describe the "Arc of Progress" as being, incline to be followed by partial decline to be followed by even greater incline, followed by yet another partial decline but not as deep as the one preceding it to be followed by even greater incline yet, etc., suggesting an arc of incline? Hope that's not too confusing! But, I think so.... That is, I believe there is a cycling process of progression that dominates the cycling process of partial decline forming an upward arc. Just as the catabolic process of the declining, dominates those cycles of progression forming the partial recovery, projecting the downward "Arc of Decline".





Oooh! That hurts, just thinking about it! However, I do believe this forward process was quite likely (but unimportant), as most of us are very likely thinking we'll be starting our slides down the backside of Hubbert's hill, if not now, soon, or so it seems, (once again for me)...



So at the conclusion of this "progress" segment of the series, I think it might be reasonable to conclude that it takes a very long time for civilizations to fall and ours is no different from the those in past history, as they had their own predicaments, as do we. That this process of decline (catabolic) does have a certain "order" or rhythm to it, was found in civilizations past, has already been detected in parts (if not the whole) of this civilization (perhaps Detroit, as a leading example in North America?) and will very likely continue as this Western Civilization wanes...





http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=561

Ever Progressing? part II

These are pictures of Lake Superior's ice taken at spring break up. Ever since I was a young boy this ice just amazed me. It would build and build, form huge "ridges" pushed up by pressure, some as 60 feet high. Then slowly but surely the lake would ice over and become a flat sheet of white, as far as the eye could see. To view something so large and vast is truly something to behold. When spring finally does arrive, the ice slowly melts away, the ice ridge breaks up forming icebergs that drift out into the lake and disappear. By summertime, there is little sign that the ice was even there, as the ice itself is completely gone.

Do you think that the great civilizations past, that walked the face of this earth, experienced much the same thing? I'm going to strongly suggest that they have, they slowly build up and form a great culture that evolves into a civilization and slowly declines, to disappear altogether. All of them were very distinct in their own ways, however they all experienced much the same dynamics of the build up and decline. None of them ended abruptly, all experienced at least 100 years of decline, some 100's of years. What makes us think that this present civilization would be any different? Because of peak oil, financial collapse, climate change? Sure, those will very likely play a role in this civilization's decline but it will not end abruptly, not in two years, not in ten, and very likely not even in a hundred. This would be like the great ice of Lake Superior disappearing over night! Not very likely... I can assure everyone, that the annual dynamics of the build and decline of this very large body of ice has not changed in hundreds of years, likely thousands...

Just the thought of the great civilizations or cultures past, would strongly suggest that there is no "ever progressing", correct? They didn't just build and build, continue to exist today, and if they did, where are they? They declined to the point of extinction, as they do not exist today. Sure, as they declined, people from one culture crossing over time, again hundreds of years, came to form yet another culture. But the people of one culture are very different than those of the other, as the culture defines "who and what" they are.

Oswald Spengler devoted much of his life in the study of human history and compiled a great work called, "Decline of the West." This book includes the idea of Muslims, Jews and Christians, as well as their Persian and Semitic forebears, being Magian, Mediterranean civilizations of the antiquity such as Ancient Greece and Rome being Apollonian, and the modern Westerners being Faustian. Each culture was unique in it's own way, though people's behavior and thought. Once a culture had achieved it's height, everything that can be done from within the worldview of the culture – everything religious, philosophical, intellectual, artistic, social, political, etc., has basically been done, the culture fossilizes into a civilization. That is, when works stop being creative and become just rehashes of the orginal art forms, it soon looses it luster and creates voids. Once the civilization begins to fall apart, it's basically, because nobody actually believes in it any more.

There we have it, civilization falls because nobody actually believes in it anymore. Do you suppose this Faustian civilization of to-day, is just about there? I think so. Cultures rise and fall slowly taking 100's of years in the process. Do you suppose that we (Faustian) who think we're striving for the unattainable (ever-progressing), just don't believe in it anymore? If this is the case and I highly suspect it is, then we can assume that this civilization will very likely fall much like the others before it and with very little intact. By that I mean, what we value today, everything religious, philosophical, intellectual, artistic, etc., much will likely be lost as we proceed to yet another culture, (IF there is to be one). As those who do carry on, will likely develop a whole new set of values, as we did from the previous culture.

So, I suppose, I'm suggesting we can all unpack our bags (as if we're going somewhere), because even if we reach to where ever we think we're going, we'll very likely not need what we've packed, when we get there.....

I just keep thinking whatever happened to that "Motown Music" that so dominated the city in the 1960's? I think Spengler, has answered that question for me... There is no doubt in my mind anyway, that what we're seeing now are just rehashes of the rich culture that Detroit once enjoyed at the peak of it's creativity....

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=414

Progress, part I

Progress: a proceeding forward; advancement or improvement in mental, moral, or physical condition. growth or development. source The Winston Dictionary, Advanced Edition, 1946

There has been quite some talk about the idea of "progress". Do you think the above photograph would in any way shape or form, imply "progress"? It's one of my primitive camps of 20 years ago. I'd dare say, that for me, it was a proceeding forward, was an advancement or improvement in my mental, moral, and physical condition, at the time anyway. That lead to my personal growth or development...

Even though, I believe we have declined here in North America for the past thirty years, we are becoming more and more a part of a global economy that hasn't. Hasn't this actually "masked" our true situation in this country? Thinking of Russia, without a doubt, they have come back and their standard of living continues to grow from the early 1990's when the former Soviet Union collapsed. Look at the growth of the economies of India and China!

Another notion my instructors had, is that there would very likely be a explosion of resources extracted and consumed toward the end of the "age of progress". I am certain, they were thinking in terms of 1930- 1970, however they could be still correct in that respect, only that there's a lot more resource than they dare imagined. Of course, this only makes sense as it would require more resource to maintain the population.

The instructors all believed that once the world ceased to progress, there would be a short pause and then we would start our descent. That this era will be short lived and marked by power outages, finally bringing down entire electrical grids around the world. That is, once electrical generation was decoupled with mass production of uniform, interchangable parts (one cannot happen without the other and this actually defines the modern industrial society), this present environment (age of progress) would end abruptly. At that point, the industrial society (age of progress) could not support the population it created. Once that happened, the die-off would begin in earnest, end of story (the instructors would not speculate what might happen after that).

There's just one insy tinsy problem that I have with the instructors about this notion as of to-day, they all believed it was going to happen soon (late 70's - early 80's). That I would not likely live the high standard of living they enjoyed, would very likely see a world of unimaginable collapse and so-on. Hmmm, kind of like what many of us believe will happen to the younger generation of today, correct? Well, I've learned a very good lesson over this, along the way, that much I'm certain of...

There's a concept that I'll borrow from Jay Hanson and share with you. Hanson's thoughts about why most people cannot come to terms with peak oil is that through out thousands of years of progressing forward, people can only think in those terms. That is, most people can only think "progressively" forward, they are incapable of imagining a tomorrow of decline, not there. They simply cannot "see" it. This isn't their fault, after thousands of years of conditioning, it's in the genetic make-up. Perhaps, an example of this might be, sheep following one another over a cliff.

This thought of "ever progressing" is not only limited to some people. Continuous growth is the basic assumption, driving our economy. Investment is made in hopes of future growth. Loans are made in hope of growth. Interest is only realized after growth. Without real growth, how can our financial system survive? Suppose, we're almost there? Could it be, that after this last expansion of growth this country has experienced from the housing market, employing perhaps a quarter of Americans, there's nothing more to grow?

When the resources that products are made from become to scarce or too expensive to profit from we can expect those products will no longer be made. No company is going to make them for nothing, not for long. Perhaps, this has been happening already? When a product costs more to make and transport, than what the market will bear, that product becomes "worthless". Could we be seeing this now with the McMansions that are in the out-laying communities far from employment centers?

I suppose, this might be enough for today. Later, I will discuss "progress" again and what this might mean in this civilization and compare it to civilizations past. I'll attempt to discuss what role catabolic collapse might have had concerning matter.

http://www.downtowndetroit.org/ddp/photos.htm

Where in Catabolic Collapse?

Ok, we're back in the same neighborhood that we started in, exactly where all those abandoned, burnt buildings and other pictures of decay that I was focusing on earlier. On the last post, Far questioned, if we're only seeing the start of the catabolic process? I thought, by showing the rather large fields and meadows that replaced where old busy neighborhoods once stood, was portraying perhaps a view of an end to the catabolic process. Now, I'm not so sure, especially in areas such as this one. One thing I did not see in my travels near that part of town along Chene Street, was the new little sections of homes like the one pictured above. I'm not saying there were none there, but that I did not see them...



As I've suggested before, perhaps we'll learn together what might be actually happening here, by viewing these pictures. Is there some kind of plan or intent, being followed? I'm going to strongly suggest there is and once again what resource is left, is being concentrated in areas deemed more viable in the future. I'm seeing little clusters of new homes (so people can keep an eye on the neighbors property?) Certainly, or well lets hope these new homes won't be capped over in another thirty years! Perhaps, the capped over areas are designed to be the garden plots of the future? If this is the case, and the infrastructure (mainly water) can still support these newer homes, might this become a more attractive area in the future?

I thought at first, what a waste of resource! To build something new among ruins!! However, isn't this the same kind of thinking that would "let go" whole neighborhoods (like the one next to Chene Street), to concentrate more effort and resource to the inner city of Detroit? Will these larger areas that are meadows now, better serve the city in the future, by not being occupied with new homes? See the connection here, only on a smaller scale? Perhaps, these ruins that surround the new cluster of homes will be "permitted" to fall and be capped over to better serve them in the future?

If this is the case, perhaps, in the not so distant future there will be little clusters of homes, surrounded by much more land of gardens and woods? That is, there will likely be no need to have rows of houses, block after block, if there isn't the population there to demand it. Perhaps, in this new arrangement these new homes will become more self sufficient? I would tend to think so, it's a lot easier supporting a family on a large plot of land than from a yard that was the size of a postage stamp, as was in the past...

So in view of this, I think, that catabolic collapse is an on going process, that certain neighborhoods are in different stages. Some in serious decline, some on the up bound partial recovery, and in the whole reflecting an "overlapping". A city that will see partial recovery, more deeper decline, on and on, in our foreseeable future.

http://www.depression2.tv/d2/node/118

The Magic Bus

This bus caught my eye and was pictured in the far background on one of the photographs on the last post. Lets go for a ride! I just had to loop around driving through the next block to get a closer look. On the trip around, we came by what looked like the ruins of an old apartment building. The catabolic process suggests, if resource depletion continues, all capitol (such as this building) will become waste.

On another tread, entropy was being discussed. http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/therm/entrop.html Notice how the bricks are strewed across the lot? This would suggest that this is a very different time as when those bricks were neatly stacked making what was perhaps a beautiful building in it's day. Those bricks just didn't fall in the reverse order that they were laid, but "unraveled" (thanks Mrs. M!) in such a way, that perhaps years from now, may become indistinguishable to what their former use might have been. Do you think, that many of the building blocks that form our society today, may see the same kind of fate?

Back to the magic bus, what about the values we have today? Do you think that many of the same values that we regard as "wealth" today, will mean anything at all, on the other side, if there is to be one? I certainly have my doubts...

What do you think the artist had in mind, painting the bus in such a way? It appears to me, that all those poka dots are arranged in order to form the background of the message GOD+WAR. Do you think that through entropy, when all those dots that form our society today will be scattered about to form the society of tomorrow, could still support the value that might be, suggested here?

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=542

Across town, twenty years later

Ok, lets leave the neighborhood that we've been focusing on and go across town to Chene St., just down the road from where the gun shop is located that was featured on the last post from detroitblog (I'll list it again). The above picture shows this "overlapping" that Far was talking about. Twenty years ago, this neighborhood did not look all that different than the neighborhood we've been focusing on. Back then, there were many more businesses and homes in this area some abandoned, some not. This area was "permitted" to fall, it fell so far into decay there were few attempts being made to try to restore it, in a way...

Lets really take a close look at the picture above, notice the "openness"? This is where businesses lined the edge of the street and behind them, homes. Notice the piles of "fill" or earth that have been dumped there? This was a very common practice back then as it appears is today. When buildings fall much of it goes into the basement (if there was one) and with this "fill" would be "capped over" making the appearance of the lot never lived on...

I was just shocked to see how much this part of town had changed! It was the first time that I've visited the area, since my leaving Detroit over twenty years ago. I had the feeling that this part had gotten much more "tamer" than what it was back then. Maybe that was because, there were a lot fewer people that could be seen in the area now, than before.


(click to get a larger image)

Even along the "business strip" almost nobody. There were very, very few businesses that appeared open, most either boarded up or gates and bars drawn for good. Oh, I remember the gates and bars, twenty years ago, but many of the businesses were open and the sidewalks had people on them. Truly, a modern day ghost town.

I can very well remember driving through this part of town with the owner/contractor that I worked for, "looking for a hole" or a place to unload the dump trucks that would be coming loaded with fill. I can remember almost pleading to this man, can't anything be done to stop the decay? The owner replied, "We're doing it, we're gonna bury it."

Never did I imagine at the time that capping over one or two lots between homes would become vast areas of fields and meadows, as those homes fell over the years. I suppose I should have, as sometimes burying the past can provide a new opportunity in the future, at least that was the intent...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=558

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=405

A higher education? "Street Wise, 101"

The building above, is directly across the road from the high school pictured below, one can see part of the metal post on the far bottom right to confirm this. Can anyone imagine this? What happened to the culture here? I suppose, if one were to ask 100 people, that you'd likely get 100 different responses. There were two men that were approaching me while I was photographing the school and this building outside the vehicle. "Hey! What are you doing there?!" one man screamed about 50 yards away. I turned to quickly bolt for the vehicle, as these men were now approaching towards me very quickly and again I heard, "What are you doing?!!"

I got into the vehicle and speed away, the rest of the entire photo shoot was conducted inside the vehicle and for good reason. I want to make it very clear, that this neighborhood and all others that I'm about to show, are very dangerous and filled with dangerous people. Some of these people have nothing to loose and perhaps a trip to jail, is better than the life they have now? I suspect, that many of the homeless people that are roaming the streets of Detroit today, would rather not risk confrontations such as the one I experienced, looking for a place to squat. Not twenty years ago, not today and likely not tomorrow, either. As for those that have lost their homes recently, perhaps the water, gas, and electric had been shut off? Perhaps, even before they actually left the home, the utilities have been shut off (could not be maintained) and they were then forced to leave the premises? If people are expected to stay in their homes, isn't it reasonable that the utilities not be shut off and other "maintenance" be made, in making the home livable? What about the maintenance of the people, themselves? Where would the money be generated to make such a notion possible? Catabolic collapse, is not a pleasant concept to contemplate... Isn't this what catabolic collapse is all about, the attempt to maintain the unmaintainable, until all resource is gone?

"greenstatistician" asked a question that I've asked at least 100 people that have lived in Detroit their entire lives, "When did Detroit start to fall?" That is assuming that, indeed there was a time when the society stopped "progressing" upwards and started proceeding downwards or declining... I think that perhaps shortly after my visit to see Santa at Sears, this may have come about. Most people, that I've talked to, think the riots that Detroit experienced during 1967, was the turning point. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/12th_Street_Riot So might have Detroit experienced 40 years worth of Catabolic Collapse, already? I'm going to strongly suggest, it has.

It seems to me, that every time that I visit Detroit, it seems to have slipped further and further into decay... Sure there have been periods of recovery and I've witnessed this too, but these were only partial and could never again reach the heights experienced perhaps a decade before it. The pattern of decline is also the same, always reaching new lows. The neighborhood that I've been focusing on wasn't this bad 20 years ago! Furthermore, I'll be so bold to suggest it wasn't a "bad neighborhood" to live in 30 years ago. No, sir! I would not have thought twice about driving the main streets here 30 years ago. Now, here I was catching myself not spending "too much time" in one particular area in the neighborhood and moving on to another, was perhaps the way to go. There were very few vehicles on the streets and some of those vehicles looked like they came out of a "Mad Max" movie. One that passed by didn't even have a windshield in it! "Back then" the houses and yards were neat, orderly, and many of the driveways had Cadillacs on them............. I cannot tell you, how jolted and sad it was coming away from this experience...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=558