Anybody home?

Do you think that this home fell victim to foreclosure? I wonder what has become of the people who once lived there? I'll just bet, that this home could be a case in study of catabolic collapse, just as the neighborhood it is in, just as the city and state, all represent stages of this process.









I'd like to suggest, that such homes as the one shown above (click to make larger), as being not common, in the Detroit inner city neighborhoods. Certainly, this house has seen some upkeep throughout the years, however, what are the chances of it being sold (no for sale signs could be found), before it takes on stages of the ones pictured down below? I would suspect, not long... My friend Nudge, is looking for a new home, what would be her first, do you suppose that someone like her would be interested in this property, if it were selling for less than $10,000? $5,000? Many of them are...

What about the home that is pictured at the bottom? This does have a "for sale" sign in the yard and is only blocks away from the houses pictured above. Again, there are more structures like those than the ones actually being lived in and the very few of the ones like the one pictured atop. I would estimate that almost half of the abandoned homes viewed during the picture shoot, showed signs

of fire. I can't image, how busy the fire department around there must be these days... What happens when the resources that make that service available become so depleted, that it must cut back, or be eliminated altogether? Just as it was very likely, the resources of the homeowner of the above home became so depleted, they could no longer afford the upkeep and were likely foreclosed upon? This is the idea of "catabolic collapse". This is a vicious cycle we're talking about here and unless resource depletion (jobs lost) can be stopped, driving down the maintenance costs below that what production (jobs created) can meet, then this catabolic process will end. I just cannot see this as a possibility at this time, here. However, there will very likely be periods of partial recovery, (maybe the next four years?), the house at the very top, may be bought, the maintenance covered for awhile until the next "slide" is encountered...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=557

Part II Catabolic Collapse

When I was going through the photos, I wanted one that presented the best example of catabolic collapse. This is it, it shows new homes that are nestled among the ruins. These little pockets represent the "partial recovery" that makes this theory so unique. Such new housing (however far and few between) are scattered throughout most of the inner city neighborhoods. Like this one, new homes are built right next door to abandoned houses, this was very common. Not only that, but fresh blacktop was recently laid on many of the streets around such projects.



Perhaps a better way to illustrate the catabolic collapse cycles of descent is shown in the graph that I've drawn on the left. This again, is very much like the one that is depicted in John Michael Greer's, "The Long Descent", however, I've added a thinner line that might suggest other scenarios projecting "Long Emergencies" that have no periods of partial recovery, just maybe periods of staying the same or ever so slightly declining. Both lines drawn show a staircase effect, however, the catabolic line (the thicker line) captures the eye showing this staircase effect better, when viewed diagonally. When viewed diagonally, the thinner line more represents some kind of saw tooth effect. This is very important, as I've heard both kinds of scenarios described as having the staircase effect, however the dynamics are not the same. Also, by viewing graphics or abstract models at different angles and by inverted them, can express ideas better or perhaps in a whole new light. More about this later...

Back to the graph and a society in catabolic collapse, each period of crisis (shown by the fall in the thicker line and the period in time is shaded) causes losses in infrastructure, social organization, information resources and population. This period can be described as a "bust". What follows is a period of stability and recovery or "boom" , but only PARTLY (the recovery cannot reach the level as obtained before it). This period will be followed by another period of instability and decline and so on. This trajectory suggests a downward arc. As John suggests in "The Long Decline" and elsewhere, the industrial world has already experienced a mild crisis during the 1970's and also a period of recovery in the following decades. The same process is likely to have more severe crises and briefer pauses, to shape history in the next 200 years..

What I really want to get across to readers, is this pattern or rhythm that John is suggesting in catabolic collapse. It's a period of decline to be followed by a period of partial recovery to be followed by even deeper decline, etc..

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=539

Part I, Catabolic Collapse

This photo was taken very near the 94/Livernois location, this house is
typical of those in the area. Almost entire blocks are dominated by structures
such as this one. Once a placed called, "home"....................
(Just think of the stories, that the tree from behind the house could reveal...)



What is Catabolic Collapse? It is a theory describing the dynamics of how civilizations decline devised by John Michael Greer, in 2005. Since that time, this theory has captured the imagination of thousands throughout the intellectual world. It certainly has mine. It can be found on the side bar from his site http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ .

Perhaps the best way to describe catabolic collapse, comes from John himself in his book entitled, "The Long Descent" A users guide to the end of the industrial age. I strongly recommend this book, as in my opinion, best describes the predicament that this civilization now faces. More about this later... In it John uses a metaphor in describing catabolic collapse. It goes something like this: Using home ownership instead of the fate of civilizations, this concept may come to light. Until recently when most people bought homes, they did so within they're means. During the housing bubble of the last few years, many people bought much more of a house than they could actually afford, on the assumption that the appreciating value of the property, along with other advantages of home ownership, would make up the difference.

However, many of these people didn't realize just how much it would cost to own, maintain and repair the new home would be, and that the soaring real estate prices made it difficult to comprehend that with every boom, follows a bust. Soon, many of these people who thought they could get rich off the investment of their home(s) found themselves in an awkward predicament, as they no longer cover the costs with their income. One popular way to cover this gap was through home equity loans, however that option was removed when housing prices began to fall and credit began to tighten. Once the opportunities began to narrow and every option, taking on more debt, left repairs and maintenance on that investment, unpaid. In time, the rising costs overwhelms available income, resulting in foreclosure.

This process of booms and busts, represents cycles that are repeated over and over, again and again, throughout history. It can be reflected in the business cycles, market fluctuations and if I may be so bold, reflected in one's own life experience.

To visualize the cycles of descent that this model (catabolic collapse) suggests, the descent of this civilization, (as with most others) will likely display a gradual arc downward, much like that of a "roller coaster ride", viewing it from a distance. Imagine for a moment, a roller coaster cart (representing civilization) going down the tracks, lasting for 200 years of decline, in time. At the peak (when the civilization is at it's height and begins to decline), the roller coaster cart begins it's descent, it falls for a period of time, comes to a "bottom" then proceeds to make a climb to the next level or hill. The coaster cart then crests that peak (at a lower level from the one preceding it) and begins to make another fall, bottoms, climbs (there may be little "bumps" along the way) to another peak at yet another lower level, and on and on. Another example, may be that of a sledder, starts the slide at top of a mountain, slides into a gully, proceeds up the next hill. The sledder crests that hill and slides through the next gully, through some bumps and up the next hill and back down again and proceeds through this process (or series of hills), all the way down the mountain...

http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=283

In Part II of Catabolic Collapse, I'll attempt to elaborate more on the cycles of descent.

Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan

this vehicle was "parked" not 10 feet from the roadway and
the picture taken inside my vehicle.........


HELP


As promised, I beginning to start the "Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan", series. What's happening in this "world class" city, has been at the attention of the main stream media as of late, last night, there was a piece on CBS's "Evening News".

I suppose, this project that I'm ready to embark on, actually started in the spring of last year just shortly after Michael Nystrom, came out with his article, "Second Great Depression in Detroit", found here http://www.depression2.tv/d2/node/118 . At the time, I was deep in the study of John Michael Greer's theory of "Catabolic Collapse" and searching for examples, when it dawned on me, what better an example? In the days and weeks to come, I'll attempt to describe what catabolic collapse might mean and how this might relate to this "once" great city.

In that respect, I want to be ever so mindful and respectful to the people who have, are and will likely have to endure this process, in the future. Most come from proud hard-working backgrounds and I should know, as I was born there, (Wayne, Mi.) in 1959 and have been apart of the city/suburbs, off and on, pretty much my entire life. Having actually worked and lived there over the years, has enabled me a perspective that spans for over 40 years. Up close and personal. I'd like to provide windows of this perspective coming from me, to you.

My posts will likely come fast and furious, as is my style, so be on your toes! In the mean time please enjoy this site, as I find it very complimentary of what I'm pertaining to http://www.detroitblog.org/?p=560 . I'll very likely pick out a story(s) from detroitblog to accompany my own, each time, to better familiar you with this great city and it's people. So, here we go again, down yet another trail of endurance...(Hope your heart can take it....)

Welcome to Yooper's Trails

Hello, and welcome to Yooper's Trails. Most people who come here are interested in my collapse views and the reasoning behind this. May I suggest by starting in the 2008 archive with, "Collapse or Decline" By reading your way upward, you'll be actually going up the trail with me, getting to know me along the way. Our destination will be, "The Vision", a story based on the assumption that electrical power has been lost across North America. "The Vision" can be found by going to the links listed below.

The reason I brought forth this scenario is because most people envision power outage with collapse. This is my attempt in providing a view in what life might be like with sudden power outage. This kind of information isn't for everyone, so at that, you have my warning. Those of you brave enough to follow me on this journey, GOOD LUCK! If you have any questions, get my attention, I'll be on it like a duck on a June bug!

1.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-i-blackout.html

2.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-ii-pause.html

3.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-iii-chaos.html

4.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-iv-hollowing.html

5.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-v-christmas-in-backwoods.html

6.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-vi-solitude.html

7.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-vii-revelation.html

8.) http://yooperstrails.blogspot.com/2008/02/vision-part-viii-new-beginning.html

Thanks, yooper

A Housing Tale from Northern MichiganSat, 03/29/2008 - 21:40 — yooper
While the Nikkei Index was falling off a cliff and the U.S. was coming out of a brief recession in the early 1990's, my wife and I realized, that if we were to make a move, now was the time, when we could still afford it. I was sharp enough to realize that a trend lasting thirty years and continues to this day would soon price us out of the market. That is, the people retiring here have (retirement) incomes that are greater than mine even at the height of my earning career. They were pricing the poor yooper, right out of the market...
I finally settled on a piece of raw land and hop footed down to the local bank for a mortgage to finance this endeavor. Of course, they were touting their 15 year and 30 year products. Since, I was asking for only 25 thousand, could they do any better? Well, after some haggling, we finally settle on a contract with the 15 year, crossed out and 10 year typed right above it, at 8.25% interest rate.
Like some "American Pie" guys, I wanted that mortgage paid off as soon as possible. Thankfully, the area as well as the entire country did see an economic expansion and the mortgage was paid off before the stock market crash and the short recession after in the early 2000's. However, unlike Japan, the market bounced right back and property prices continued to soar.
Unlike Japan, an island with little natural resource, the U.S. would attempt one final push using it's own resources to mask over it's "limit to growth". Enabling this last expansion, the housing market (for the large part) put American people back to work, in demand for American made products.
Now, our property is "worth" 4 times the amount we paid for it, even if we didn't improve it. The "value" of the homestead is completely out of the range I would be comfortable in buying, in today's prices. However, if I'm correct and the U.S. has peaked like Japan did over 15 years ago, perhaps we'll soon see the same kind of dynamics in our market (if we're lucky) as did the Nikkei? If that happens, then it's reasonable to conclude housing prices will fall accordingly..
More later..
Thanks, yooper
reply

The Rise and Fall of Industrial Economies?

What I like about this site (as this first appeared on Depression2TV), as the former BNB, here we are again speculating into the future. Since few of us have crystal balls to gaze upon, most of us amass past and present information in presenting our cases. I'm no different in that respect and try to use historical and scientific fact intertwined with unproven theory supporting my assumptions. What does the rise and fall of industrial economies have to do with the housing market? A lot I suspect, and in many ways what is happening here is like a carbon copy of what happened in Japan over 15 years ago and continues to this day. Instead of focusing on those similarities that most of you probably already know about, I'm going to present a similar evolution that the industrial economies of the U.S. and Japan share.First, lets ponder why are the U.S. and Japan economies the largest in the world respectively and have been for decades? There is only one major reason for this and it's fact. When electricity (not oil or gas, derived from coal) made it ECONOMICALLY feasible to couple that power to machines that could mass produce uniform parts, could this only been realized. It did not matter whether Japan had the natural resources to do this, they had the technology/machines capable of producing interchangeable parts and products in a automatic process. If a machine broke down, it was just a simple matter in replacing that part with another like part, since that part was not hand made. It was economically feasible to ship resource there to be manufactured, especially when few countries were even capable of this feat. Only recently, are the economies of India and China capable of this. Furthermore, if the former USSR (and many other countries) were capable, then why didn't they do it? They didn't do it, because they couldn't, simple. To illustrate this concept, think WWII. Both the economies of Japan and the U.S. had this technology. The former USSR only after the war and in a very limited way. After the war, both economies (U.S. and Japan) picked right up and continued to expand, barely missing a beat. Yet another way of looking upon this can be, the machines that have transformed the old world into the modern world, (cars, trucks, planes, heavy equipment, etc.) were born from machines capable of making the parts and products to make this transformation possible. By and large, those products came from the U.S. and Japan. More later...

Thanks, yooper



The rise and fall of industrial economies? Part IIMon, 03/31/2008 - 10:50 — yooper
In part I, we discovered the it was the economies of Japan and the U.S., that transformed the world into the modern era (by and large). This process happened when technology brought about coupling electrical generation to machines capable of mass producing standardized parts. This line of thought follows the Olduvai Theory, to an extent.
During this time, the people within these two economies standard of living (I'm using the term loosely), grew. Higher wages, better nutrition, better health care and a reliable modern infrastructure resulted. Which has brought about an aging population, living longer. This is a common occurrence within industrialized countries the medium age is much higher, depressing birth rates and some are actually in decline now. Of course the populations of China and India are exploding, they are just now coming on line of being industrialised, the medium age of the population is much lower and the birth rate much higher.
Limits to growth? Could Japan have already seen this limit? Especially, if their population is projected to decline? That alone would certainly depress housing prices. I suspect, if not for immigration, the U.S. would have seen similar circumstances. Is the U.S. just now experiencing this?
For years, I've always thought that Asian markets (for that matter the world), followed Western markets. That may be, in the short term. However, at this point, I'm seriously questioning if the Western market is not following the Nikkei in the long term? Furthermore, I'm wondering if the dynamics of the smaller cycles are similar to the larger, long term ones? That is, we'll see decline to be followed by periods of "recovery" that leads to even further decline. For example, look at our top and the dynamics since and then look to Nikkei graph in Michael's story. See a similar pattern?
We'll know for sure as time wanes (not waxes) into the future. Time will tell. If these patterns hold up, then this process is best described as a "catabolic collapse" introduced by John Michael Greer. His theory of catabolic collapse can be found here http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ on the side bar. Another interesting point as Michael has suggested, Japan is almost producing at zero waste, that is a result of this process. Waste being converted into product. An interesting example of this was Henry Ford's idea to make the "Kingsford" brand of charcoal briquettes from wood waste from the factories.
What this means for the future of Japan and the U.S., I do not know. However, if I were to guess, housing prices have a lot further to decline.
Thanks, yooper