Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Ace of Spades Part III, The Olduvai Theory

THE OLDUVAI THEORY and going back to the stone age.....
The above photo was taken almost twenty years ago, and shows one of my primitive tepee camps and my old hunting dog. I stayed at this camp for a month and a half before moving to another similar camp and stayed there another two months.
The Olduvai theory states that the industrial civilization will have a lifetime of less than or equal to 100 years (1930-2030). Gee, that 1930 date is mighty close when electrical generation was coupled to machines of mass production, eh? This theory was first introduced by Richard Duncan PH. D. in 1989 (almost ten years after my formal education), and divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" encompasses most of human history when simple tools and weak machines (like the photo posted earlier), limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lifted all limits of growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to the point of equilibrium with nonrenewable resources and the natural environment.
The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections: 1) The Olduvai slope (1979-1999), 2) The Olduvai slide (2000-2011), this marks escalating warfare in the Middle East and the peak of world oil production, 3) The Olduvai cliff (2012-2030), by 2012 an epidemic of permanent blackouts spread worldwide, first there will be waves of brown outs and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire. Finally culminating to a world population of 2 billion circa 2050.
A staunch supporter of this theory, Perry Arnett, (a frequent poster on Jay Hanson's "lists"), has a timetable of the following events: 2005, oil probably peaked, still on an undulating plateau in 2007, starts cliff 2010-2012 or before. 2012, U.S. electricity brownout and blackouts become the norm, or sooner. 2015, World die-off begins in earnest. 2030, U.S. per-capita energy consumption hits the "30% mark-After Peak" equaling a 1930's lifestyle (probably much sooner).
I only wished that one of the instructors lived long enough to see this! Would it have changed his apocalyptic view? Probably not, it hasn't changed the other instructors view of the future, either.......

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