It was during the winter of 2006, when I began to prepare the people who were posting over at BNB, (Bullnotbull.com) to hear this message. Most of the people on this board were Wall Street traders, investors, gold bugs and people who had a "bearish" view. I had been following Michael Nystrom's book reviews and the comments being posted for about a year. At the time, this was a large site and comments would range in the hundreds, after each article. Of course, speculation dominated the conversation over there. The people over there were very well read, educated, a very articulate bunch of people! I was just heart broken when the board finally went down mid-April. I had "lost" a lot of good friends that I truly cared about.
Peak Oil, was not a new topic of discussion for these people and it was often apparent this was on their mind when speculating into the future. People often discussed the thoughts of James Kunstler, The Archdruid, Carolyn Baker and the like. However, when it was revealed, that I would describe a die-off having run it's course in a couple of years, did people ever take notice! Furthermore, I predicted that a quarter of world wide population could expire within a month. One half by the end of three months, three quarters by the end of six months, to finally settle at 300,000,000 within one or two years. This prediction is not an uncommon one and is probably one of the oldest going back fifty years or so, regarding the die-off.
It's one thing to talk about Peak Oil, yet another to talk about die-off. Not many people are willing to listen to arguements supporting Peak Oil, any mention of "die-off" and you've lost your audience altogether. This is why many writers refuse to refer to it, it would be shear suicidal to their career if they did so. I would attempt to break this mold, in being forceful to this group of people when discussing this matter. Although this was a "turn-off" to many on the posts, as one reader put it, "why am I preparing, if such a scenario couldn't happen?" Another reader who I suspect is a very well respected Peak Oil commentator asked, "Why must I tell him that he is going to die?" Indeed.....
Of course, this conversation drew many of the Peak Oil writers to the board, as well as many others who have been predicting dire forecasts of the future. If one were to investigate this matter by going through the achieves in the months of February and March, 2007, one can only speculate who "Kentar", "Sharon", "Rich" and "Whatmeworry", are, however, every writer does have their signature. I likened this conversation as players sitting around a high stakes game of poker with the whole casino watching on. The discussion board changed to a new format, accommodating for the "game". Being more comfortable in this new arrangement, the players began to reveal their "hands". This is where I supported my case of such a scenario in five parts, points or concepts in cards.
This new format did'nt last long, perhaps a month. As convenient and subdivided in category the new board was, it was susceptible to spam, eventually to fall victim to a hacker.
In the weeks ahead, I'll turn over one card at a time and explain what it might mean in the future. I'll also discuss for the first time how the others were playing their hands. So not only will you be getting a version of the future from me, but from three others, as they envisioned it.
Naturally, this converstation is not for the timid. The reader will have to be as bold to read it, as I am to write it. Hope you can join in!